News / E-commerce-driven peak season may have 'the legs' to last till CNY

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“We are definitely in a peak season now,” said DHL Global Forwarding SVP airfreight, Steffen Treiber, “and this could “have legs” to stand until Chinese New Year, added Neil Wilson, editor at TAC Index.  

On the latest episode of The Loadstar Podcast, Mr Treiber said he was recognising “an increase in demand for air cargo”, which he attributed partly to new product launches after the Golden Week holiday in China, but said it was “mainly driven by e-commerce demand out of South China and Hong Kong to America and Europe”.  

But how long this would this last, as the booming e-commerce market and post-covid fallout have changed typical seasonal norms? 

“It is difficult to judge if this will be a lasting impact, up to Chinese New Year [in February], or if it is just a short-term peak,” Mr Treiber explained. He said that market could expect to see air cargo beginning to normalise mid-to -end of December, but that e-commerce demand could last longer.  

Mr Wilson confirmed to podcast host Mike King that “e-commerce out of China and Hong Kong are hotspots”, listing China-US and China-Europe as an upward trend that “will last until about Chinese New Year”.  

Check out this clip of Neil Wilson talking about the peak:

Mr Wilson explained that while year-on-year rates are still about 26% lower, during the summer months they were around 50% lower. He said this rising market, while slow, has “got legs”.  

CEO of Challenge Group Yossi Shoukroun said the e-commerce boom was not just happening from Asia, but also to Asia.

“It is not just westerners buying Chinese goods, it is everyone buying everyone’s goods.” 

He explained that this meant tradelanes were changing and urged the industry to adapt to this.  

Mr Treiber added that capacity had increased about 5% from Q4 22. But Mr Wilson warned that geopolitical tension, namely the conflict in Gaza, “has the capacity to affect capacity and short-term rates”. 

Mr Treiber agreed: “Geopolitics will have a significant impact on supply chains – the conflicts have caused [the price of] fuel to rise which has increased transport costs in return. 

“The events could lead to trade disruptions and tariffs that make it more difficult and expensive to move goods around the globe,” he said. 

You can hear a clip of Mr Treiber here: