News / Asia-USEC shippers to lose 42% capacity in a surge of blanked sailings

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The eastbound transpacific trades are set to see a surge of blanked sailings over the next months, as carriers adjust capacity to meet the wild fluctuations in demand since the introduction of President Trump’s tariff “policy”.

According to analysts at Sea-Intelligence Consulting, the number of weekly blanked sailings on the transpacific from Asia into the US west coast will hit a high next week, 28 April to 3 May, of 10 services set to be blanked – equating to the withdrawal of 28% of the weekly capacity on the trade.

And week 20, 12 to 18 May, will also see 10 services blanked, although currently this equates to 25% of the trade’s overall capacity – but, given the swiftness with which carriers are announcing blanks, this may well change.

“Clearly, such an increase illustrates a dramatic change in the market,” says Sea-Intelligence’s weekly report.

“Partly from the perspective of the magnitude of the blank sailings, which are more akin to what we tend to see seasonally, following Chinese New Year in January/February and China’s Golden Week in October.

“And partly from the perspective that many of these blank sailings have been announced with very limited advance warning to the shippers,” it added.

US importers using east and Gulf coast gateways for Asian imports will see an even more drastic cut in capacity, particularly in week 19 – 5 to 11 May – when a significant 42% of trade capacity lost through the blanking of nine services.

While reports of widespread cancellations in Asia of bookings to US destinations remain anecdotal rather than displayed in trade data, due to the lag in collating bookings – estimates of cancelled bookings in China have ranged from 30% to 60%, so far – Sea-Intelligence argued that the blank sailing announcements give the clearest indication of what carriers are seeing at a booking level.

“Presently, this is likely one of the best up-to-date indications of the impact on tactical container demand,” it said.

“From that perspective, the impact is staggering, as on Asia-North America west coast, the carriers now clearly anticipate container demand in week 18 to be 28% lower than expected, and on Asia-North America east coast in week 19, they now expect shippers to move as much as 42% less cargo than anticipated.”

Meanwhile, Drewry’s Blank Sailings Tracker has recorded 72 sailings set to be blanked between now and the end of May, 56% of which will be on the transpacific trades, with 31% on Asia-Europe and 14% on the transatlantic, and the consultant warned shippers to expect the number to rise.

“A rise in cancelled sailings is expected in coming weeks, predominantly in the transpacific eastbound, booking cancellations continue to climb, with some vessels potentially departing China with significant empty space through May,” Drewry said.

“Ongoing uncertainty surrounding US-China tariffs has left cargo owners scrambling to offset rising costs, leading many to cancel shipments, or halt cargo at the point of origin,” it added.