News / Shippers breath easier as the US and China extend the trade truce

ID 278845040 © Kevkhiev Yury

The US yesterday extended the 90-day pause for ‘reciprocal’ tariffs on Chinese imports until 10 November – a move that could “change the whole logic” of some supply chains.  

The executive order said the additional 90-day extension of the 30% tariff followed discussions with China “to address the lack of trade reciprocity in [their] economic relationship”. 

Beijing also announced a similar pause to its threat to increase the current 10% tariff on US imports.

“Through these discussions, the PRC continues to take significant steps toward remedying non-reciprocal trade arrangements and addressing the concerns of the United States relating to economic and national security matters,” it added. 

US president Donald Trump said the decision was based on “recommendations from various senior officials, among other things.” 

Tim van Leeuwen, head of strategy consulting at aviation intelligence company Rotate, told The Loadstar that “immediate front-loading in this new pause might be limited”, as many shippers had “used the previous pause to front-load essential goods”.  

But he highlighted that the new pause would extend into the traditional Q4 peak season for airfreight, adding: “Given that the pause ‘only’ extends until 10 November, we might see some more front-loading, especially towards the end of October/start of November to get peak-related inventory in.”

Helaine Rich, VP of strategic sales and administration at US-based ePost, told The Loadstar many US exporters were “evaluating their options”. 

“Some of my customers are looking at opening hubs in the EU to avoid the expense of bringing inventory into the US, and then shipping it out. But of course they have to balance what those costs are and see if it really makes sense to increase their overhead,” she explained. 

“Right now, everyone seems to be in an exploratory phase, and some are actually targeting 2026 to make that move.”  

But Ms Rich  added that most companies were just looking to work within the new requirements, and “not do anything dramatic”. 

She advised: “Do your due diligence; see what the cost would be to set up a location outside the US for distribution.”

Mr van Leeuwen added that June had seen “a significant reduction of airfreight volumes from China into the US”, 28% on June 2024, “mostly due to shippers rerouting supply chains and shipping into the US from other locations”.  

“Given that other countries are now facing tariffs again (eg, India at 50%) shippers will again need to adjust their supply chains to limit exposure as much as possible,” he urged.  

Indeed, Frederic Horst, CEO of Trade and Transport Group, pointed to the recent move by many phone manufacturers to India from China to reduce exposure to tariffs. 

“India had been growing strongly since last year, but since April, it has exported more mobile phones to the US than China,” he said, but added that the new tariffs would “change the whole logic of exporting phones from India to the US”. 

He said: “I would expect to see front-loading [from India to the US] before the end of the month.”