News / Blanked sailings in response to falling demand 'just a stop-gap solution'

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Blanked sailings are only a “stop-gap solution” for carriers amid critical tonnage oversupply, according to analyst Drewry, which this week predicted a “more holistic downsizing of their fleets”.  

Yesterday, The Loadstar reported Drewry’s view that the outlook for container demand was grim, 2025 being only the third year since 1979 to signal a decline.  

And the contraction in demand for carrier services also comes at a time when the markets are heavily oversupplied. 

“The trade war really has massively increased the risk for carriers. I think damage limitation is the name of the game,” said Simon Heaney, senior manager of container research at Drewry. 

He noted that to offset declining US trade, carriers needed to invest more in emerging trade routes, and reduce operational costs wherever they can.  

And while the immediate response has been an increase in blank sailings for US trades, Mr Heaney warned: “This is really only a stop-gap solution. I think, longer-term, carriers will need to consider a more holistic downsizing of their fleets.” 

Drewry’s supply-side projections include the quick ramping-up of idling and scrapping, and that ship owners could try to delay newbuild deliveries, or even cancel recent orders. 

But Mr Heaney highlighted that the US plan to tax China-built ships calling at US ports was likely to cause “another market distortion, relating to demolitions”.  

“The usefulness and value of non China-built ships will increase, and therefore owners will become less inclined to scrap Korea- or Japan-built units. And that will potentially delay the rebalancing of the market,” he explained.  

Drewry data shows that, at the start of last month, the aggregate capacity of containerships of at least 20 years old was approximately 3.5m teu.

“That’s a sizeable chunk of the market that could be theoretically cold,” said Mr Heaney, “but only 6% of them were actually built in China. So if you scrap non-Chinese ships, clearly you’re limiting your potential.”  

Mr Heaney also pointed out that the ripple effects would trickle down to both the newbuild and charter markets, “whereby China-built ships will become much less desirable”. 

He said this would mean any significant increase in the premium for South Korean ships would likely suppress overall demand for newbuilds.