News / Plunging airfreight rates and no post CNY pick-up: 'the end of globalisation?'

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Collapsing rates and no post-Chinese New Year pick-up paint a sad story for the global air freight market – sources even suggesting it marks ‘the end of globalisation as we know it’.

Last week’s reported TAC Index spot rates for Shanghai to the US were $2.58.

A forwarding source told The Loadstar the market had been “quiet” since Chinese New Year, noting that while this was “normal”, there had been no sign of the usual strong March pick-up.

Indeed, the forwarder said they expected the state of play to remain in the slump that started in the final quarter of 2022, amid decreasing demand for Chinese products from the west, which was potentially linked to worsening political relations.

Hong Kong freight forwarder Nick Coverdale said the “rate war” was already heating up in the weakened market. He cited rates offered by Chinese carriers as low as $2.55/kg to Los Angeles and Chicago and $2.85 to New York.

Meanwhile, Flexport told customers today that across China “demand is low”. However in northern China, it said, there was “an upward trend”, while in the south the opposite was true. It added: “Demand ex-South-east Asia overall remains low, with capacity widely available. The Thailand export market is picking up a bit this week, but demand is generally still on the softer side.”

Full-freighter services are expected to bear the brunt of the pain, with a drop in container rates leading to a post-pandemic modal shift to ocean. Meanwhile, the resumption of almost all passenger flights and resultant incoming belly capacity is exacerbating excess capacity.

Ligentia confirmed that China-North Europe exports remained “relatively weak”, and some have suggested the decline in demand for Chinese goods could see cargo value fall 10%.

The source said while “rate wars” and drops in trade were nothing new, these signs, twinned with the shifting geopolitical landscape, were evidence of the emergence of a “very different” model of international trade, in which “the real globalisation” had died.

But the gloom has not overshadowed Cathay Pacific’s new drive for a return to a strong business. Last week, it announced a rebrand from Cathay Pacific Cargo to Cathay Cargo.

Group CEO Ronald Lam said the move was part of efforts to “align” its cargo services with its “master brand” and reflected the substantive cargo investments it had been making in Hong Kong and the Greater Bay Area.