2025 will be 'quite a ride' – but logistics will 'again prove its value'
With tariff-induced transport shifts set to cause supply chain complexity, 2025 “is going to be ...
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Shippers in China are looking for more access into South America for manufacturing, as the threat of ‘Trump tariffs’ is set to exacerbate the already emerging trend of near-shoring – Miami being eyed as a key hub.
Emir Pineda, director of marketing & air service development at Miami International Airport (MIA), told The Loadstar there had been a rise in cargo volumes from South America to the US through Miami ,“as part of the China plus one strategy”.
He estimated that some 74% of imports and about 78% of exports to and from Latin America and the Caribbean used MIA as a US gateway – a figure that is set to increase as president-elect Trump’s threats exacerbate manufacturing shifts away from China, which would be hardest hit by heavier tariffs.
“We’re always going to want products that have been manufactured in China….but we are seeing a movement of manufacturing coming away from China. Call it near-shoring, on-shoring, whichever, but it’s moving to other markets.”
He explained that companies using China as a manufacturing location were now moving closer to the US, to areas such as Mexico, Dominican Republic and Central America, as well as Vietnam and India. And South America is a top contender too, due to cheaper labour costs and its proximity to the US consumer.
“China has been looking for access, or greater access, to Latin America and they’ve tried different strategies,” he said. “Initially off the west coast, now they’re kind of moving into Dallas and so forth. But the only way they’re really going to connect is via Miami.
“The reason for that is our connectivity; we have more flights to South America and the Caribbean than any other gateway.”
Director product success at World ACD David Serradas noted that there was 20% more capacity going into Miami, versus in the other direction, “south-out” and “a lot of that is obviously to do with the freighters”, he explained
However, he added that “even though the demand is there, it’s still not what you might expect”.
Mr Serradas said: “The demand is not bad, but the capacity is much stronger… it’s putting some downward pressure on the rates.”
According to WorldACD data, capacity into MIA, including from Chile, Brazil, Ecuador, Colombia and the Carribean, is dominated by perishable exports, but there has been a recent increase in general cargo.
He added: “We expect some of that momentum to continue into next year. Obviously, it’s no longer peak season, but a strong market overall… So still strength in this market, demand is good, but pressure is due to the capacity situation.”
But with tariffs threatening to increase supply chain costs and the market battling with a capacity crunch on outbound-Asia, low rates and sufficient capacity can only increase South America’s attraction for foreign companies.
And despite ‘Trump tariffs’ likely expediting a production shift to these locations, Mr Pineda highlighted that “this trend has been going on even before the elections”.
He explained that constant supply chain disruptions had led to a ‘don’t put all your eggs in one basket’ mentality.
“We have a post-Covid world that realised that the logistics set up in this country wasn’t really in our favour, particularly in key sectors like chip manufacturing, hi-tech, automotive and so forth,” he said. “They realised, ‘wait a minute, we can’t count on Taiwan building all our chips because if they have a problem, our cars aren’t built’.
“A hard lesson from Covid, but we should have known that already,” he concluded.
The News in Brief Podcast gives you a 15-minute overview of last week’s supply chain news and a look into what’s coming up this week
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