News / Box shipping's resilience will be tested after September drop in volumes

ID 27920611 © Xuejingwen | Dreamstime.com

Fresh evidence that the strong July and August container volumes represented an early peak season for the transpacific and Asia-Europe trade emerged this morning, with Container Trade Statistics’ (CTS) September data showing month-on-month declines in almost every trade.

Globally, transported container volumes fell 5.9% compared with August, with the sharpest drops seen on the Far East-Europe trade, which dropped 13.5% month on month, to just over 1.4m teu shipped.

Similarly, the transpacific eastbound trade saw volumes contract 9.1%, to just under 2.1m teu.

However, CTS noted that September’s figures contrasted with record-breaking volume growth earlier in the year – “August’s restored global volumes marking the highest monthly movement in CTS’s recorded history” – and despite it being “the first notable decline in 2024, year-on-year volumes remain over 2% higher”.

The two outliers to the slowdown were the transatlantic headhaul Europe-North America route, which grew marginally, by 1.2%, and the Middle East/India-Far East trade, which saw 7.1% growth, to 260,000 teu, and led it to overtake the India-Europe trade in terms of volumes.

It also noted that the September CTS price index – which covers both spot and contract rates paid during the period – followed the decline in volumes and recorded an 11-point drop, which was “the most significant monthly decrease observed this year” and restored pricing much closer to the pre-early peak season levels seen in June.

The notable exception to this was again the transatlantic headhaul Europe-North America route, which reported a slight increase in the run-up to the ILA-USMX 30 September port labour negotiation deadline.

CTS said: “Looking back over 2024, it appears the market is beginning to stabilise, following disruptions from the Red Sea conflicts, US pre-election cargo surge and the near-miss of east coast port strikes.

“As we move into the final quarter and gain more insight into the political and economic landscape, we will see just how resilient the container shipping market is in navigating these challenges,” it added.