News / Increased scrutiny of ecommerce may threaten high-flying air cargo

© Terelyuk Anna

The strong year in air cargo has been credited to ecommerce – but “traditional” air cargo might also see a bump next year, according to Xeneta.

The non-ecommerce market, B2B goods shipped by air, “remained muted in 2024, but that is likely to change in the year ahead”, noted the benchmarking platform.

Xeneta said, in its 2025 outlook, that semi-conductors – particularly in regards to AI-related products – will be one sector in demand in 2025. Semi, the industry association for semi-conductors, has estimated that global shipments of silicon wafers, a key ingredient, will grow 10% next year, following a 2% fall this year.

“With the majority of semiconductor materials shipped by air freight, this will fuel the growth of air cargo demand, particularly on corridors out of Asia,” noted Xeneta.

Air freight analyst for Xeneta Wenwen Zhang noted: “The AI wave will lift the recently stagnant B2B airfreight market. But this will not have as dramatic an impact on global demand when compared to factors in 2024, such as the Red Sea crisis and the rise of ecommerce.

“Shippers on corridors with lower demand growth are still at risk if airlines remove capacity from secondary trades to meet the increasing demand out of Asia.”

Xeneta added that global GDP growth, predicted to be stable at 3.2% next year according to the IMF, would also support air freight. But it warned “disinflation will also be key”.

Global inflation is expected to fall to 4.3%, down from 5.8% this year, which would support consumer spending.

“However, disinflation could be disrupted by rising commodity prices resulting from geo-political trade tensions and labour shortages, due to US immigration control.”

Ecommerce will, of course, also continue to drive air cargo, with the US Department of Commerce estimating global B2C and B2B traffic will grow 14% annually until 2026, with the highest pace of growth in South and South-east Asia. China currently accounts for more than one-third of all ecommerce volumes, with growth of a staggering 35% in the first 10 months of this year.

But there could be flies in the ointment from increasing scrutiny by regulators: the UK has paused Shein’s stock market listing while it examines allegations of forced labour; the EU is investigating Temu for an alleged breach of the Digital Service Act; Indonesia has banned Temu; and security and tax authorities in the US, EU and elsewhere are eyeing customs checks more closely.

And then there is the Trump factor: tariffs on China and elsewhere could impede the flow of goods – or the appetite for them.

“Given the US represents a quarter of China’s cross-border ecommerce volumes, and occupies more than half of air freight capacity between these nations, any efforts by Trump to put up blockers to this type of trade will have significant implications,” noted Xeneta.

“If political intervention dampens growth in ecommerce volumes from China to the US, airlines would need to recalibrate the capacity and demand balance on this fronthaul corridor.

“The impact of slower capacity growth on the fronthaul could impact the backhaul trade, with higher freight rates to send shipments from the US to China and nearby regions which transit via China.”

But where there is a threat, there is opportunity.

“Airlines and freight forwarders may find reassurance in those shippers in the traditional air freight market, if there are increasing uncertainties around ecommerce regulations,” noted Xeneta.

But, it warned, demand will still outpace supply – measured in available cubic metres – which is expected to grow by 3% to 4% next year, down from 4% this year.