News / Airlines rethink strategy as ecommerce to US begins decline

© Oleksandr Bohza

Shippers and forwarders are waiting to see how airlines manage their capacity before locking into longer-term deals, according to analysts, as the first signs of ecommerce uncertainty hit airfreight rates. 

Airlines are assessing their freighter strategies for the summer season, with Xeneta predicting that many will shift towards South-east Asia rather than China, or reposition capacity to the transatlantic.

It added that forwarders were delaying signing BSAs as they await more clarity, and shippers too are postponing annual contract negotiations – opting for short-term agreements in the meantime. 

Tac Index analysis supported those findings: “Freight forwarders, reluctant to overcommit on certain lanes, are shifting volumes to alternate routings or ocean freight, which can leave carriers with short-term excess lift in one region, only to face tight capacity in another as new demand corridors emerge (eg, South-east Asia to North America).” 

And Freightos said it had seen freighter cancellations, and a shift to ocean freight. 

All three companies agreed that the buzz in the ecommerce market is starting to fizzle out, with declines out of China to the US. 

Xeneta said February spot rates out of Shanghai dropped 29% month on month, to $3.23 per kg – while to Europe, spot rates fell just 2%, to $3.86 per kg. Xeneta said the decline to the US “may be one of the first indicators” that the US administration’s tariff plans may have started to bite airfreight. 

Tac Index revealed that indices from China to North America fell 10.54% in February, reflecting lower ecommerce demand. 

“The effect of tariffs on B2C shipments has become evident as online retailers are switching to ocean freight consolidation or to distribution within the US.  

“Carriers with too much transpacific lift are looking for ways to redeploy aircraft to South-east Asia or even transatlantic routes. Meanwhile, shifting supply chains to countries like Vietnam and Indonesia keeps intra-Asia flying robust.” 

Xeneta chief airfreight officer Niall van de Wouw explained: “When the ecommerce boom took off, it very quickly clogged up the Hong Kong and southern China market, because of so much outbound demand.  

“So, the ecommerce market started to venture eastwards to Shanghai, even though it was less desirable due to additional cost. 

“If a fall in ecommerce volumes means there’s currently more available capacity to do business out of Hong Kong and southern China again, we would expect Shanghai to be the first market to feel this impact, and that’s what we saw in February. This may be short-term, but the uncertainty around ecommerce is impacting the market.”    

Xeneta’s global air cargo spot rate declined 5%, month on month. Mr van de Wouw warned that if ecommerce was affected, “it will have a profound effect on airfreight rates around the world”. 

Freightos Air Index noted that China-US rates dipped to below $5/kg, compared with about $6 a year ago, “suggesting some easing of demand. This level remains significantly elevated compared to the long term average though, reflecting that a big drop in volumes or release of capacity into the market has yet to materialise”. 

But Xeneta also warned that its 4.6% growth outlook for 2025 may be wrong if ecommerce took a dive. 

“This is also going to have a knock-on impact on other markets,” said Mr van de Wouw. “If I was shipping ex-Vietnam to the US right now, for example, I’d be concerned about the impact on rates if more shippers descend on this corridor to lessen the impact caused by tariffs on direct shipments from China to the US.” 

Tac Index noted that the market was “mixed”. 

“At the heart of these fluctuations are deeper structural issues. Delays in next-generation freighter production are slowing fleet expansion, while shifting trade policies are forcing carriers and freight forwarders to rethink capacity planning.  

“The industry is caught in a delicate balancing act, managing current oversupply while bracing for potential shortages knowing full well that a single tariff decision could shake up trade routes overnight. 

“The new US tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, along with the temporary removal of de minimis on Chinese ecommerce shipments, have introduced volatility in traditionally robust lanes. While immediate transpacific capacity has relaxed somewhat due to softening ecommerce demand out of China, the threat of retaliatory measures and further tariff changes is sparking cautious capacity repositioning.” 

Ti, in its latest airfreight tracker, agreed: “The start of 2025 has proven to be a complex landscape for the global air freight industry.” 

It said there were “significant challenges: capacity constraints, exacerbated by delayed fleet expansions and airlines prioritising passenger operations, have tightened market conditions, while supply chain disruptions and evolving trade policies inject uncertainty into planning.  

“Geopolitical tensions, US tariff adjustments, and the [planned] elimination of the de minimis threshold have further reshaped buying strategies, prompting retailers to rethink sourcing and nearshoring efforts.” 

On other lanes, Northeast Asia to Europe saw a 10% increase over a year ago, but it fell 2% month on month. Northeast Asia to the US saw a 17% decline month on month, to $3.79 per kg.  

The transatlantic remains strong though, with spot rates from Europe to Latin and North America seeing single high digit growth month on month – in part owing to lower belly capacity. 

Backhaul continues to be poor for airlines, with North America and Europe to northeast Asia falling 10% year on year. 

There is one potential sign of hope for airlines however: the US’s plan to charge Chinese-built ships a penalty when visiting US ports. 

Tac Index said: “Container shipping rates have fallen sharply, with further uncertainty created by a plan announced through the US Trade Representative to impose port fees of $1m-plus per ship per visit for any vessel manufactured in China arriving at US ports. Some view this as potentially good news for air freight rates, as long as shippers then decide to move more volumes via air cargo instead.” 

Xeneta said the proposed port call fees “could throw ocean shipping schedules into disarray, in the short-term driving up container freight rates and even prompting a shift from sea to air”.