News / US CBP sees 90% fall in revenue last month; airfreight sees ecomm slide

© James Knopf

February may have been the month in which the US suspended its de minimis exemption for three days, but CBP saw a 96% fall compared with January in duties and fees identified via audits.  

CBP collected 90% less revenue than it did in the previous month, although the number of entries it processed fell just 7%. 

The big double-digit changes in the CBP’s February statistics reveal what a challenging month it was for the authority – it stopped 49% fewer shipments on suspicion of forced labour than it did in January. 

And while CBP works on imports in all modes, there is less than three weeks to go before it is expected to find a solution to processing imports without a de minimis exemption, primarily airfreighted in to the country. 

“The lack of a solution was a main reason de minimis was quickly restored back in February, though many are sceptical one can be developed in a short timeframe,” noted Freightos head of research Judah Levine. 

The confusion and uncertainty over ecommerce rules into the US has fed through into the air cargo market. Freightos noted that along with reports of cancelled charter flights from China to the US, airfreight rates on the lane dropped 7% to $4.61/kg last week, 40% lower than at the start of the year. “It suggests a gradual easing of ecommerce demand on this lane,” added Mr Levine. “There are already signs that China-US ecommerce air cargo volumes – largely dependent on de minimis – are easing and likely shifting to ocean logistics and domestic fulfilment.” 

Yet the rate drop was similar to northern Europe from China – down 7% to $3.02/kg. Transatlantic stayed flat, at $2.37. 

Tonnages, globally, were stable week on week, according to WorldACD, and 2% up on the previous year, while the data company reported that spot rates were also flat – including out of China and Hong Kong to the US at $3.78/kg. 

WorldACD said volumes from Asia Pacific to Europe rose 4% in week 10, with China up 5%, Hong Kong 6%, Japan and Taiwan 7%, Thailand up 9% and Vietnam up 3%. Owing to a reduction in freighter capacity from South Korea, tonnages dropped 11% out of the country. According to Rotate, capacity out of South Korea to Europe fell 4%.  

Spot rates fell from Asia Pacific to Europe by 3%, with declines from China (-5%), Hong Kong (-2%) and Vietnam (-7%). 

But while Asia Pacific exports grew, the rest of the world saw contraction, with falls in chargeable weight from Central & South America (-9%), Europe (-3%), North America (-2%), Middle East & South Asia (MESA, -1%), and Africa (-1%).  

It is not just uncertainty over de minimis that is likely to be worrying US importers. US retailers have lowered second quarter import projections, with the National Retail Federation cutting its forecast. 

“Import volumes for April and May are projected to grow year over year, but at a slower pace than previously expected, while June and July are anticipated to decline, with July imports down 13.9% from last year,” noted Flexport. “The NRF cites concerns over increased tariffs on Chinese goods and potential new fees on Chinese tonnage at US ports, which could raise costs for cargo owners and consumers.” 

Although a tax on US port calls would likely boost air cargo.  

According to Vesselbot, 21% of all US trade last year arrived on Chinese-built vessels.