News / Gemini's hub-and-spoke strategy will 'fuel demand for feeder vessels'

Photo: Hapag-Lloyd

Non-operating feeder containership owner MPC Containerships (MPCC) said this week it was “looking forward” to the Gemini vessel-sharing cooperation between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, as it could “fuel demand” for feeder ships.

Hapag-Lloyd said last week it was “slightly ahead of schedule” on its network planning, which will see the Gemini Cooperation offer 58 east-west services from next February, comprising 26 main line and 32 shuttle services.

However, shippers will need to be convinced of the robustness of the Gemini hub-and-spoke strategy, with many customers saying that they prefer ‘direct’ services, like offered by the other alliances, against the proposed transhipment option.

Indeed, some shippers recall missed export shipments or delayed import arrivals when transhipment networks have fallen short in the past.

Therefore, the Maersk and Hapag sales teams that begin canvassing for contract business next month will need to reassure their key account clients that the network foundations will be firmly in place before the official start date.

And it follows that the Gemini operational team must have the shuttle schedules finalised at the spoke and hub ports, and the owned or chartered vessels to be deployed in the networks locked-in well in advance of the launch.

During the NOO’s Q2 earnings call, CEO Constantin Baack said he believed Gemini’s hub-spoke system would be very positive for feeder vessel owners.

“We actually believe it will create new demand for inter-regional trades and feeding into those hubs, so it’s basically a way to address the market by two very large partners of ours.

“We think that this will fuel demand for feeder services once the alliance is up and running, and therefore we believe also demand for smaller ships,” added Mr Baack.

MPCC operates a fleet of 58 ships, ranging in size from 1,200 teu to 3,400 teu, as well as two newbuild 5,500 teu eco-vessels, which are chartered out to the major ocean carriers, including MSC, CMA CGM and ONE, in addition to the Gemini partners.

The NOO has a charter hire backlog of $1.1bn, comprising a 98% coverage of its fleet in the second half of this year and 76% in 2025, with 58% of its ships already fixed for 2026.

Given the strong charter party coverage for its fleet, MPCC was bullish in its outlook, increasing its 2024 financial guidance for an ebitda of between $355m and $350m, from the previous $280m to $305m.

Nevertheless, longer-term there could be challenges for containership owners if ocean freight rates collapse in the coming quarters.

Indeed, analysts at Maritime Strategies International (MSI) have flagged up the toxic mix of weak demand and a rush of newbuild deliveries as a concern for the containership charter market, particularly for the smaller sectors.

“As market activity levels increase again as the summer holidays come to an end, our base case expectation is that the charter market is going to increasingly head south as demand softens and newbuild deliveries maintain a heady pace,” said the MSI Horizon report, adding  that “this is likely to impact smaller sizes first”.