News / Competitor for An-124 heavylifter could be 20 years, and $30bn, away

The prospect of $30bn of investment and decades of development will thwart the hopes of those looking to break the looming monopoly of the heavylift sector by Ukraine’s An-124 fleet.

Trade and Transport Group MD and former Boeing analyst Thomas Crabtree told The Loadstar he did not expect to see a new “strategic airlifter” for at least a generation.

“We’ve seen multiple efforts to get into this market; they do not work,” he said.

A report in The Loadstar last month included a suggestion that a US Airforce C-17, with a 75-tonne payload, was a possible competitor, if commercialised, but Mr Crabtree said: “The An-124 has a variant capable of carrying up to 150 tonnes.”

He explained: “Part of the issue with the C-17 is that it sits on the US Munitions List, which restricts sales to operators in countries perceived as a potential adversary. And the other issue is that it is built to military standards, which, due to flying far fewer hours, are not as restrictive as those demanded of civil aviation authorities. It would mean significant work in improving it.”

The average 747-400 is in the air for 3,000 hours a year – during Covid, the figure hit 5,000 hours for some carriers. Comparatively, the average strategic airlifter operates for less than 1,000 hours a year, the Antonovs fly fewer than 500 hours a year and those in military use tend to fall below even that. Substantial investment would be required to allow aircraft to fly for longer.

“In the west, there are no airlifters presently either in production or on the drawing board,” said Mr Crabtree. “Fewer than 8% of commercial aircraft are freighters, so it’s already a niche industry, and strategic airlift is even smaller – ironically, such a small market that I reckon the costs of building a new one would be astronomical.

“I would say $30bn, with 15 years, minimum, if not two decades, of development required before we saw one in the air.”