News / US east coast strike fears and price hikes fail to halt falling transpac rates

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Mainline operators have given up on hiking transpacific rates this month, as the cargo rush ahead of China’s Golden Week holiday on 1 October has not materialised.

Flatlining rate levels have persisted despite fears of the International Longshoremen Association’s (ILA) strike on the US East Coast have also caused shippers to divert containers to the West Coast.

Last Friday, the SCFI’s Shanghai-US east coast rate reflected this, falling 11% from the previous week to $7,511 per 40ft, was despite congestion remaining high at US east coast ports.

However, the Shanghai-US west coast rate was unable to benefit from the strike fears, and similarly fell 9% to $5,605 per 40ft. Although a series of rate hike were introduced on 1 September, these have been entirely undone and another attempt to increase rates on 15 September is also likely to fail.

Analysts at Linerlytica observed that typhoons in east Asia have exacerbated congestion in China, as vessel bunching affected departures from China over the last fortnight.

With no surge in export shipments before the Chinese holidays, shipping lines are cutting rates to fill their vessels during the first two weeks of October.

Newcomer operators such as SeaLead Shipping and Hede (Hong Kong) International Shipping, have also challenged the market and created the prospect of a rates war.

Linerlytica stated: “Even the imminent strike planned at US east coast ports starting on 1 October provided little impetus for the market as carriers aborted their plans to hike freight rates in mid-September, with cargo demand insufficient to support any increase ahead of the October holidays in China.

“East coast rates are coming under severe pressure, with further sharp declines expected after last week’s 11% drop. Shippers are transferring their east coast volumes to the west coast where possible to avoid the planned ILA strike in October, resulting in a drop in demand which in turn triggered carriers to drop rates in response.”

There remains no progress on the ILA contract negotiation, with the ILA leadership making strong statements over the past week, further increasing the likelihood of a coastwide strike on beginning 1 October.