News / 'Evidence of a genuine peak season bounce' is good news for airfreight

Global airfreight indices are pointing towards a optimistic end-of-year for carriers, with signs not only of rates stabilising, but even edging up on some trades.

Noting there were “no clear signs yet of any significant Q4 peak,” WorldACD nonetheless highlighted anecdotal reports from forwarders of a “slight seasonal tightening”, amid stabilisation in both global rates and tonnages following China’s Golden Week holiday this month.

Its week 42 update stated: “Preliminary figures for 16 to 22 October show a 1% increase in tonnages and in global average rates, compared with the previous week, based on the more than 400,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data.

“That follows a 4% week-on-week recovery the previous week, following a 6% drop during the first full week of October, corresponding with China’s Golden Week holiday break.”

Comparing weeks 41-42 with the preceding two weeks, overall global tonnages, rates, and capacity also increased by 1% versus their combined total in weeks 39-40 – although, on a regional basis the picture was more mixed.

Decreases were recorded on outbound flows from Europe to Africa and Central & South America, both down 8%, with flows to the Middle East & South Asia down 7%.

Tonnages were also down, by 5%, on flows from Asia Pacific to the Middle East/South Asia, and on the Middle East/South Asia to Europe, but notable increases were recorded on Europe-Asia Pacific (+11%) and Middle East/South Asia-Asia Pacific (+8%).

“Intra-Asia Pacific tonnages also rose strongly, up 11% over the two-week period compared with the preceding two weeks,” the report continued, with: “Other notable increases were recorded from Africa to Europe (+7%) and ex-Central & South America to Europe (+5%), while there were modest tonnage and rate increases (+2%) on the big markets ex-Asia Pacific, to North America and Europe.”

Tac’s Baltic Air Freight Index noted that the week to 23 October experienced a 2.8% increase, helping to further reduce the year-on-year decline now hovering around 33.7%.

Unlike WorldACD, Tac appeared more optimistic, suggesting the latest figures were “further evidence of a genuine peak season bounce ahead of Thanksgiving and new year holidays”, pointing to firmer pricing out of China being particularly influential.

“Outbound routes from Hong Kong gained a further 2.7% week on week, to trim its year-on-year decline to only 19.2%, with rates rising to Europe as well as to North America,” it said.

“Outbound Shanghai was up even more strongly, by 4.1% week on week, to leave its year-on-year fall at 27%, mainly driven by the rising rates to North America, with rates to Europe sliding.”

However, it was not all good news, the index describing the European market as “lacklustre”, with outbound Frankfurt down 1.9% week on week.

This left the year-on-year fall at 48.7%, albeit with rates to China rising and to North America falling, as outbound London Heathrow also slipped a further 1.3%, week on week. Rates to North America with year-on-year drop of 60%.

But it added: “From the US, outbound Chicago bounced again, week on week, maintaining a volatile short-term pattern, to leave the year-on-year change at -45.7%.

“But rates from US to China overall were rising strongly. The biggest rises on the week, however, were again out of Vietnam – with rates rising very sharply week on week on the strength of spot demand both to Europe and the US.”