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Better known to philosophers as the problem of inductive reasoning, as first elucidated by the Scottish thinker David Hume, the problems is thus: until the discovery of Australia, all swans were white, therefore being white was an intrinsic part of being a swan; and then they discovered Australia and black swans… The same goes for supply chain risk – just because something hasn’t disrupted your supply chain before, doesn’t mean it can’t in the future. But preparing for everything that ...

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