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Better known to philosophers as the problem of inductive reasoning, as first elucidated by the Scottish thinker David Hume, the problems is thus: until the discovery of Australia, all swans were white, therefore being white was an intrinsic part of being a swan; and then they discovered Australia and black swans… The same goes for supply chain risk – just because something hasn’t disrupted your supply chain before, doesn’t mean it can’t in the future. But preparing for everything that could go wrong is like trying to bottle up infinity, it can’t be done. So what should supply chain risks analysts look out for?

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