News / As tariffs loom, air freight forwarders ponder the chances of a happy new year

As they ponder the prospects for 2025, freight forwarders in the US can look back on an unexpectedly robust 2024.

Uncertainty over key factors could mean potentially stronger headwinds in the year ahead.

“2024 was a bit of a surprise in the right direction,” said Brandon Fried, executive director of the US Airforwarders Association. “We were bracing ourselves for a lacklustre year, but conversations I’ve had with our members indicate that everyone seems to be doing well.”

The Logistics Managers Index (LMI) for November in the US shows the sector in expansion territory, with a robust reading of 58.4 – albeit down from a 23-month high of 58.9 in October.

It marked the twelfth month in a row that the index was above the 50-mark, which separates contraction from growth.

The monthly index is a joint project of researchers from five universities, with support from the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals. It is based on eight key components within the logistics sector, including inventory levels and costs, warehousing capacity, utilisation and prices and transport capacity, utilisation and prices.

The results show a pattern of consistent growth, which is in line with the trajectory of the US economy in terms of consumer spending and wage growth versus inflation, the authors pointed out.

The coming year appears poised for a good start. A logistics index published by Tampa-based 3PL BlueGrace Logistics, on the basis of a shipper survey, found that 68% of respondents forecast positive revenue growth in the first quarter of 2025, pointing to 1.7% growth over the current quarter.

In terms of growth in order volumes, 40% of respondents were upbeat on the first quarter, while 52% were neutral.

However, Mr Fried noted that much of the outlook was obscured by uncertainty, pointing to the threat of tariffs; de minimis legislation that could affect e-commerce, geopolitical conflict and labour issues.

In light of incoming president Trump’s track record, Mr Fried sees a good chance that those tariff plans will be moving forward, while others hope they may be averted.

“Hopefully, the tariffs being threatened is just a negotiating tactic and not something that will be real. That could create damage to the US economy,” wrote one of the authors of the LMI Index.

“It’s going to hurt our business,” said Joe Delli Carpini, president of forwarder Cargo Tours.

Mr Fried urged forwarders to engage in an early dialogue with their customers on how to mitigate potential fallout from tariffs, or geopolitical conflict.

A renewed shutdown of ports along the US east and Gulf coasts in January might produce a temporary shot in the arm for airlines, but it would exacerbate existing issues with air cargo – above all capacity constraints, he warned.

Danish forwarder DSV is decidedly not bullish on the airfreight sector: in a quarterly market report this month, the logistics giant warned that it expected air cargo volumes to be flat in the coming year, owing to slowing e-commerce growth and cargo owners adapting to container shipping disruptions.

Mr Delli, whose company has seen strong growth in some sectors it has developed – such as lobster traffic to China – remains upbeat, but with a caveat: gains will come from value-added services.

“Traditional air and ocean forwarders work for pennies. Sometimes we sell the forwarding at a loss to get the more attractive parts of a customer’s needs,” he said.