News / Trump tariffs on China a boost for exporters in Vietnam, Thailand and South Korea

Photo: © Paulus Rusyanto

US president-elect Donald Trump’s planned tariffs on Chinese products are expected to boost containerised imports from Vietnam, Thailand and South Korea, which have already seen significant growth since 2017.

A Linerlytica report today says that in the first 10 months of this year, Vietnam’s container exports to the US exceeded 2m teu, more than double those of 2017. And World Customs Organisation figures show that in Q2 24, they were up 41% on Q2 23, primarily manufactured goods, as supply chains continued to shift from China.

Vietnam’s educated workforce and low business costs have made it an attractive destination for manufacturers, and its warming diplomatic relations with the US have also helped.

But Linerlytica’s data also shows that Thailand’s exports to the US have tripled since 2017, totalling around 900,000 teu in the first 10 months of 2024. In October alone, they were up nearly 25%, year on year, supported by farm and food products.

Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, head of Thailand’s Trade Policy and Strategy Office, said yesterday he was not concerned by Mr Trump’s threat of tariffs against the US’s three largest trading partners, Canada, Mexico and China. He added that that several US companies had a presence in Thailand so exports to the US benefited them.

And, according to Linerlytica, South Korea’s containerised exports to the US exceeded 1m teu between January and October, compared with around 600,000 teu in 2017. Analyst Tan Hua Joo told The Loadstar that the main growth items were electrical appliances, equipment and machinery.

Although China’s share of US imports from Asia decreased from 70.4% in 2017 to 58.9% this year, it remains the largest origin country of containerised imports, although Vietnam, South Korea, and Thailand are generating the largest growth in volumes and market share gains.

That said, Mr Trump is not blind to Chinese manufacturers using Vietnam as an origin to evade US tariffs and, in 2019, threatened tariffs on Vietnamese products, pushing the country to import soybeans and aircraft from the US to narrow its trade surplus.

Linerlytica said: “The planned tariff hikes by the incoming US president are aimed at Mexico and Canada at the moment, with limited impact on maritime traffic to the US. The threatened 10% tariff on China is also significantly lower than the 60% that was initially proclaimed, with no indication that the Trump administration is still planning for a blanket tariff on all imports into the US.

“This could boost the prospects for Asian exports, especially for Vietnam, South Korea and Thailand which have enjoyed the biggest gains in the past six years.”