News / US port dispute: 'the carriers and USMX are going to lose this battle'

Photo: © Americanspirit

The employers’ “only choice” is “how they want to lose” the stand-off with US east coast dockers; with suggestions this may provoke a longer strike than expected.

After suspending strike action in September, the ILA dockers’ union has struggled to win any concession from employer association USMX on the issue of port automation, but the US presidential election may have handed it a trump card.

S&P Global VP Peter Tirschwell told podcast The Freight Buyers Club that president-elect Donald Trump would “side with the union, 100%”.

He added: “Trump’s announced nominee for labour secretary,Lori Chavez-DeRemer, is a pro-union person; his political base is blue collar like dockworkers, and he has already been openly expressing support for the dockworkers’ position.”

Mr Trump’s support for the ILA makes sense, given that supporting the dockers plays into his ‘America First’ position if those workers look set to lose out to foreign firms.

And Mr Tirschwell cited the timing of a potential strike – set to commence five days before Mr Trump’s inauguration.

He said: “They go on strike then. They’re on strike for five days. Trump comes into office as the knight in shining armour who tells the ocean carriers ‘there’s going to be hell to pay, unless you agree to what the union is asking’, and he saves the day.”

Vespucci Maritime CEO Lars Jensen told the podcast he was largely in agreement, but had noted “another play” that was “important to keep in mind”.

“That is the end game, as I see it. That the carriers and USMX are going to lose this battle, I think, is more or less a foregone conclusion. The only question then is how do they want to lose it?”

“At the end of the day, they are going to have to lose it in a way that makes it the easiest to pass on these costs to the customers.”

Mr Jensen added that, far from any strike being short, it would be in the best interest of the employers to ensure not only that it went on “as long as possible,” but that it was “as painful as possible”.

Taking such an approach, he continued, would make it easier for them to tell shippers that either the base rate had increased, or that a new surcharge was being introduced.

“The more visible it is that they’ve been browbeaten by a combination of the administration and the ILA, the easier it’s going to be for them to then force through rate increases to compensate them” he said.