News / Ripples from 2025 CNY 'may still be rocking the boats in summer'

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Danish forwarder DSV has warned that ripples from the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday could be felt into the second half of the year, as the looming alliance reshuffle would exacerbate network disruption and lead to surcharges and blank sailings.

This year’s CNY begins on 29 January and runs for two weeks, with most of the country closed for business, which DSV warned would impact capacity to and from the Far East.

“The usual consequences include long transit times, flight cancellations and void sailing schedules, all of which has a significant impact on the global freight market for weeks after CNY,” it said.

The forwarder added that this year’s CNY would be “even more challenging”, due to the Red Sea crisis and changes to the carrier alliances on 1 February.

The world’s largest container line, MSC, yesterday announced an increase to its Emergency Operation Surcharge (EOS) from 27 January “until further notice”.

It explained: “In light of the significant changes in the alliances network, we foresee general operational disruption during the first months of the year.”

The EOS covers routes from North Europe to the US, Puerto Rico and the Bahamas and will be $1,300 per teu and $2,000 per feu, up from $500 and $1,000.

But while transit times are likely to be disrupted as the carriers align their new schedules, DSV advised that the Ocean Alliance network would remain the same and its schedules were likely to be less impacted.

Meanwhile, Maersk warned customers today that, due to CNY, it would void voyage 506W on its Safina service, due to leave Ningbo on 5 February for Jebel Ali. It said: “As we approach the CNY period, we recognise the unique challenges this season brings, including expected decline in demand and a limited workforce for cargo operations.”

But it assured clients it would “rebook cargo to the remaining network in advance”.

According to Sea-Intelligence, carriers have so far scheduled blanked 9% of available capacity, the lowest in the past 10 years and according to the analyst, “a sharp contrast with the 22.8% blanked in 2024, and the average 2016-2019 reduction of 18.3%”.

CEO of Sea-Intelligence Alan Murphy said: “Under normal circumstances, this would mean significant blank sailings announcements in the upcoming weeks, since it is highly unlikely that carriers would be satisfied with this level of excess capacity. This would result in a situation reminiscent of 2023 and 2024, where significant capacity cuts were made very close to CNY.”

However, he highlighted “the unknown”, due to the phase-in of the new networks of MSC, the Gemini Cooperation and Premier Alliance.

“This introduces uncertainty, whereby the carriers might prioritise getting their vessels phased-in to the new networks at the expense of not blanking as much capacity as usual,” explained Mr Murphy.

Meanwhile, DSV advised businesses to “deepen inventories” and urged: “If you are not already considering this impact in your business planning, now is the time to do so.”

The forwarder predicted that equipment shortages over CNY would not be as bad as in early 2024, as demand was not as strong, but it warned that the repercussions of the combined factors were expected to continue into the spring, “and might be felt up to the second half of 2025”.