CNBC Supply Chain Survey: The holiday spending outlook is sluggish... (is it, really?)

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07/11/2023

CNBC reports:

As holiday shopping season begins, lack of big orders from retailers is the rule amid fears that consumer spending will be weak, according to a new CNBC Supply Chain Survey.

At CH Robinson, which serves 7,500 retailers, customers are generally being cautious, said Noah Hoffman, vice president for North American Surface Transportation, with inflation still an issue and ongoing uncertainty about the U.S. economy and risk of recession.

“The largest retailers are past working through their excess inventories, but careful not to over-order,” Hoffman said, while some of the small- to medium-sized retailers are still destocking.

The national inventory-to-sales ratio, which on the surface appears to have returned to a pre-pandemic level, is skewed by the largest retailers, he said, adding that, “further upstream in the retail supply chain, many wholesalers are also still carrying excess inventory.”

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One interesting comment from US trade specialist Dan Gardner came on social media following the release of this article:

“The only thing a 3PL sees on the import side is what their import customers have procured for the Xmas season. That doesn’t mean that what they bought overseas will be purchased by consumers (at a profitable price point, at least). Totally erroneous to predict holiday spending based on what 3PL see in inbound volumes.”