Middle East premium fades – but AI boom keeps air freight rates aloft
Air freight markets appear to be settling, with capacity largely returned to the Gulf, fuel ...
WTC: 'ONE RECORD'HLAG: EARNINGS GUIDANCE UPGRADE AAPL: GLOBAL SMARTPHONE SHIPMENTS VW: THE IMPACT VW: MASSIVE JOB CUTS CONFIRMEDEXPD: BULLISHCHRW: POSITIONING AHEAD OF EARNINGSAMZN: IN THE NUMBERSAMZN: PEOPLE MATTER UNTILVW: THE LAST CUT IS THE DEEPESTJBHT: GEARING UP VW: BUYING TIMER: BIG VOTE OF CONFIDENCEAAPL: BEARISH HEDGEYE AAPL: THE BEAR CASE
WTC: 'ONE RECORD'HLAG: EARNINGS GUIDANCE UPGRADE AAPL: GLOBAL SMARTPHONE SHIPMENTS VW: THE IMPACT VW: MASSIVE JOB CUTS CONFIRMEDEXPD: BULLISHCHRW: POSITIONING AHEAD OF EARNINGSAMZN: IN THE NUMBERSAMZN: PEOPLE MATTER UNTILVW: THE LAST CUT IS THE DEEPESTJBHT: GEARING UP VW: BUYING TIMER: BIG VOTE OF CONFIDENCEAAPL: BEARISH HEDGEYE AAPL: THE BEAR CASE
DHL Global Forwarding is ramping up use of its in-house air capacity as disruption linked to the Iran conflict continues to squeeze global cargo supply.
The forwarder this week launched new freighter rotations between Asia and Europe, leveraging DHL Express aircraft to secure “controlled capacity” on key lanes, in what is a significant advantage for the company.
The move reflects a broader structural advantage within the group. As CEO Oscar de Bok told The Loadstar last year, DHL can draw on its own aviation assets, allowing it to “buy and charter internally… from DHL Express… to balance capacity”.
“We can build an air corridor that’s completely ‘yellow’,” he said, adding that DHL “thrives on complexity”.
That capability is proving increasingly valuable as capacity tightens.
Some 30% of Asia-Europe air freight typically transits via the Middle East, meaning disruption across the region has had an outsized impact on available lift.
Flexport chief executive Ryan Petersen told Bloomberg Surveillance this week that the effect had been significant: “18% of the air cargo capacity in the world is operated by Middle Eastern airlines… it’s effectively removed from the market.”
The loss of lift is reshaping how freight is secured, with forwarders, brokers and integrators taking a more active role in sourcing capacity.
Charter demand has surged as operators replace constrained Middle East lift, while military utilisation, airspace restrictions and fuel pressures continue to limit aircraft availability.
As a result, forwarders are prioritising guaranteed space, with “controlled capacity” models becoming more widespread across key lanes.
Meanwhile, air freight rates continue to climb.
According to TAC Index data, global rates rose a further 9.3% week-on-week to 30 March, with some lanes up more than 50% year-on-year as capacity remains constrained.
“The bigger problem is just available capacity,” said Mr Petersen.
The disruption to Gulf hubs is forcing significant changes to routing patterns.
Forwarders are increasingly relying on alternative gateways and more flexible routings via Europe and Asia-Pacific, as restrictions persist across the region. Last week, Flexport launched a sea-air product combining ocean freight from Asia to the US West Coast with onward airlift to Europe, offering transit times of around 27 days at significantly lower cost than pure air, as shippers seek alternatives to disrupted Middle East routes.
DHL has also launched a Liège-Jeddah service to move European life sciences shipments into the Gulf via Saudi Arabia, underlining how it is reshaping flows around constrained Middle East hubs.
Meanwhile, embattled Qatar Airways Cargo said it was increasing freighter operations via dedicated flight corridors agreed with aviation authorities, highlighting the continued operational constraints across the region.
While capacity is returning, services remain conditional and subject to disruption, and the combination of disruption, constrained capacity and rising costs is accelerating a broader shift in the air cargo market.
DHL’s ability to integrate forwarding with its own aviation assets highlights a growing divide between providers that can secure capacity internally and those reliant on the open market.
With demand still outstripping available lift and volatility set to persist, such models are likely to play an increasingly important role in maintaining supply chain resilience.
Check out our recent installment of The Loadstar Snapshot, on DSV and Cargowise:
For uninterrupted access, sign in or sign up to The Daily News, Premium or The Loadstar Enterprise Plan.
Comment on this article