News / May US trucking gains a blip – no indicator of a clearer road ahead

US trucking volumes improved in May after declines in the previous months, but observers still don’t see signs of a recovery in the second half of the year.

The May issue of the Truckload Volume Index, published by DAT Freight & Analytics, which measures the number of loads picked up during a month, shows month-on-month improvement across the board for truckload carriers.

The index climbed 5% over April, both for the dry van and reefer segments, while flatbed loads rose 7% month on month. All three had been at their lowest level in April since February 2021, when volumes were hit by severe winter weather conditions.

However, the index shows year-on-year declines of 4.8% for dry van loads and 5.7% for reefers, although the flatbed index was 5.2% above its May 2022 reading.

Statistics from the American Trucking Association (ATA) also show the downward pressure on carriers eased last month. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the ATA’s For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index shows a 2.4% increase over April, following month-on-month drops of 1.7% and 2.8% respectively for April and March. Without seasonal adjustments, the index was 10.1% up in May from April.

Despite the improvement, tonnage still lagged 2022 numbers. Seasonally adjusted, it was down 1.3% year on year in May, having dropped 3.4% in April.

The ATA index is dominated by contract freight. Its chief economist, Bob Costello, was downbeat about the situation.

“Tonnage had a nice gain in May, but remains in recession territory,” he commented. “Additionally, tonnage continues to contract from year-earlier levels as retail sales remain soft, manufacturing production continues to fall and housing-starts contract from 2022 levels.”

Freight transport consulting firm FTR is also sceptical about the outlook for US truckers. VP Avery Vise said: “Our estimates and forecasts still show the truck freight market at close to its bottom, but the outlook remains quite weak. For example, we see almost no improvement in capacity utilisation into 2024, which would keep freight rates soft. Some upside potential exists for better market conditions, including a stronger automotive sector and a deeper loss of driver capacity than we are forecasting currently, but trucking companies should not count on those developments.”

The May blip has not extended into June, according to DAT. It reported spot market volumes for dry and reefer freight had fallen steadily since Mother’s Day to a seven-year low.

The intermodal sector has not fared any better. Numbers for May from the Intermodal Association of North America show a decline of 8.8% in May 22’s intermodal volumes. Domestic containers were 4.9% lower, while trailers slumped 17.7%. International container volumes fell 11.3%.

And June shows no respite. For the week ending 17 June, the Association of American Railroads reported a 6.5% year-on-year drop in intermodal container and trailer numbers, following an 11.2% decline the previous week. Through the first 24 weeks of the year, intermodal units were down 10.7%.