SA's Wall Street Breakfast: The rising sun

22/02/2024

SEEKING ALPHA reports:

It took over 34 years, but trading floors across Tokyo today erupted in cheers and applause at the end of the market session. The Nikkei 225 (NKY:IND), Japan’s main stock index, closed at a new all-time high above 39,000, following a record run last seen during the country’s late-1980s asset bubble. In fact, the Nikkei has been the world’s best-performing major index in 2024, surging 17.5% only two months into the year and trouncing the impressive near 5% advance of the S&P 500.

Why so hot? There are several factors at play, with many seeing a new era for the Japanese market. A falling yen and the fading promise of China have lured foreign investors (like Berkshire’s Warren Buffett) and boosted earnings of heavyweight exporters. Additional bright spots have been the corporate governance changes that have sent stock buybacks soaring, while excessive cash balance sheets have declined, as well as strategic crossholdings between conglomerates. It also comes amid optimism that Japan has finally escaped from the doldrums of deflation, and big industry that has been pumping in investment from semiconductors to artificial intelligence.

“Japan is re-emerging from its multi-decade long hibernation with multiple government initiatives that have held back share valuations starting to reverse course, for both Japanese shares and the yen,” SA analyst Dan Stringer wrote back in December, when determining the “Best Idea for 2024.” He recommended the iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ), highlighting that it traded at a 15x multiple, compared to the over 26x earnings multiple of the S&P 500 (SP500). However, the “biggest risk is that the government bodies start to lose confidence in the policy pivots” for reasons that include “wage inflation not taking hold like it is currently anticipated.”

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