News / Forwarder concern grows over port strike amid a scramble for dwindling airfreight capacity

© Pachara Inthawong

Forwarders have expressed “growing concerns” over the US port strike, which – given the immutable stance of the ILA, combined with a difficult political situation – could drag on, impacting air cargo.

The key for shippers is alternative means of transport or destinations, with air, road and rail expected to come under pressure as shippers struggle to get goods in the right places.

Many forwarders are looking to air freight as a possible, if only partial, solution.

“In the coming days, demand will surge as shippers scramble to reroute cargo, but the big question is whether air cargo can absorb the extra load,” Brandon Fried, head of the US Airforwarders’ Association, told The Loadstar.

“Forwarders are doing what they can, but we’re already seeing the limits of capacity, especially as we head into the holiday season.”

Mr Fried added: “Costly sea-air solutions are being employed, which provide some relief, but they also come with steep price hikes, and air cargo space is going to be tight.”

Sea-air is “very much on our radar”, agreed Kim Ekstroem, CCO air cargo for Shipco Transport. “We are ready to offer this alternative if the strike prolongs. For US imports, it would be sea-air pretty much as it runs today via Dubai.

“For US exports, it would be air-sea. We would fly the cargo to a nearby port, from where we could inject it into our LCL infrastructure for ocean freight to final destination.”

He added that sea and air only worked if the all-air rate was “prohibitively high”.

“If the strike goes on for more than a few days, airfreight rates will go up, and air-sea will come into play.”

The other concern for airfreight is capacity, said Mr Fried.

“While there is some space left, it’s only a temporary fix. Ground handler congestion, increased storage fees and delays in pickups and deliveries at airlines are likely.

“We saw a similar situation during Covid, when ocean ports were backed up – costs skyrocketed, cargo was delayed and, ultimately, the consumer paid the price through inflation. We’re already hearing that holiday sales could take a major hit if products can’t make it to shelves in time.”

Angel Rodriguez, ASF Air president, said the window of opportunity was closing.

“Let’s be real, a complete supply chain mode shift from ocean to air isn’t always a practical solution. However, a portion of your production can, and should be, considered as “shiftable” in mode to create the necessary safety stock.”

He said customers were analysing their requirements – and calculating the cost of having no stock in place.

“In many instances, there’s still time to reroute or change the mode of transportation to meet the need date,” he said.

The Airforwarders Association has joined a coalition urging the government to intervene, said Mr Fried.

“The longer this strike goes on, the more catastrophic the effects will be on the economy.

“Experts estimate that for every day of work stoppage, it could take three to four weeks to recover. The ILA has pledged to handle military and energy cargo, but the broader impacts could reverse much of the progress the federal government has made in controlling inflation. Just last week, the Fed lowered interest rates for the first time since 2020, and this strike could undo three years of economic gains.”

However, not only is it politically difficult for the White House to intervene just before the election, but the ILA has pledged a slowdown if members are forced to work. Its chief, Harold Daggett, said the union could go from 30 port moves an hour to just eight.

Other unions have also pledged support, which could mean lower productivity elsewhere. Mr Fried said that forwarders are concerned about Halifax, where workers  are “sympathetic to the union’s cause”.

The Teamsters could inflict harm. Its general president, Sean O’Brien, warned the government to “stay the f**k out of this fight”.

“Any workers – on the road, in the ports, in the air – should be able to fight for a better life, free of government interference,” he said, adding that the Teamsters were “100% committed” to the ILA cause, and would not cross picket lines.

The ILA appears to have enjoyed day one of the strike, which it has been building up to for some time. Mr Daggett, who reportedly earned $901,000 last year, pledged in a video last month to “cripple” the US, noting that in the “third week, malls start closing down”.