News / Blanked sailings in sight as transpac rate plunge continues after 'phantom peak'

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Container spot freight rates on the transpacific trades continued their headlong descent this week, after another 20% was wiped off Asia-US west coast prices and 13% off Asia-US east coast.

In the space of just two weeks, transpacific spot rates have lost 40% of their value, largely as a result of “low demand for US-bound cargo”.

And, according to analysts at Drewry, “is a sign that the recent surge in imports to the US, which occurred after the temporary halt of higher US tariffs, will fail to have the lasting impact we had initially expected”.

The Shanghai-Los Angeles leg of Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) finished the week at $3,741 per 40ft, and despite the precipitous decline of the past two weeks, today’s level is still around $1,000 more than prior to the announcement of the 90-day tariff pause on non-Chinese imports into the US.

Similarly, Xeneta’s XSI short-term index’s transpacific route stood at $3,178 per 40ft, a drop of 28% on the previous week, while the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index’s (SCFI) Shanghai-US west coast base port leg dropped 7% week on week, to finish at $2,578 per 40ft.

It is now too late for goods loaded in Asia to arrive by sea in the US before the tariff pause’s 9 July deadline, underlining the theory that the trade has just witnessed a “phantom peak“.

The WCI’s Shanghai-New York leg ended the week at $5,703 per 40ft.

Carriers are expected to respond to the worsening rate environment by blanking more sailings, and Drewry predicted: “Carriers are reviewing capacity as demand shows signs of softening.

“With the US tariff pauses nearing expiry in July and August, demand is expected to ease further.

“In response, carriers are actively adjusting capacity through blank sailings and service changes,” it said.

In complete contrast, the Asia-Europe and transatlantic trades continued to show a remarkable level of stability, as it appears carriers have adequately matched capacity with demand, and attempts to introduce new FAK [freight all kinds] rate levels have at least halted a potential spot rate slide.

For example, on 1 July, MSC will introduce an Asia-North Europe FAK base rate of $4,300 per 40ft, up from its current $3,900.

The WCI’s Shanghai-Rotterdam leg gained 1% this week, to finish at $3,204 per 40ft, while the XSI lost 1.5%, to finish at $2,854 per 40ft. In contrast. the SCFI’s Shanghai-North Europe base port leg gained 10% week on week, to end at $4,060 per 40ft.

“We have seen initial rate increases on Far East westbound for July, but we are also seeing bookings being released quickly without issue – so it seems space is readily available,” one Asia-Europe forwarder told The Loadstar.

“I’m not expecting these rate levels to hold, and believe they will start dropping again like they have on the transpacific – although I think they will not drop as steeply as the US west coast, as we’ve not had such a big injection of capacity on Far East-Europe,” he added.

The WCI’s Shanghai-Genoa leg also gained 1% week on week, to end at $4,100, while the SCFI’s Shanghai-Mediterranean base port leg lost 2.5%, to end at $5,970 per 40ft.

Meanwhile the WCI’s Rotterdam-New York transatlantic leg was unchanged, at $1,982 per 40ft, the same level at which it has sat since mid-April.