News / Asia-Europe airfreight: 'a few weeks of intensity – but not much'

Asia-Europe looks to be the only airfreight game in town this quarter; although intra-Asia is also healthy. 

A holy trinity of disruption – Golden Week, a typhoon, and the temporary shutdown of China-Europe rail services – helped fuel rates on Asia-Europe, but failed to drive up transpacific airfreight demand. 

But even outside this minor blip in airfreight’s fortunes amid a soft transpacific market, Asia-Europe, while not exactly ‘peaking’ in the traditional sense, looks stable as volumes shift away from the US. 

“Policy changes continued to redirect small parcel and discretionary cargo. Ecommerce platforms and forwarders leaned into alternative routes toward Europe and within Asia, while transpacific flows stayed uneven,” noted Tac Index. 

“Rail disruptions and post-typhoon recovery in Southern China funnelled urgent shipments into airfreight, right as the pre-holiday restock started. Forwarders clearing backlogs and shifting inventory for Golden Week drove the short-haul bump, feeding into Asia–Europe long-haul traffic.” 

It added that there had been a “tactical redeployment of lift toward lanes with firmer yields”, with airlines shifting capacity to Asia-Europe and the Middle East, while cutting transpacific exposure.

According to Rotate, September saw 2% growth over August in freighter capacity on Asia-Europe, and 7% growth from the Middle East. To Asia from Europe, freighter capacity rose 8%. In contrast, the transpacific fell 1%, while the transatlantic saw falls of 4% westbound, 1% eastbound, and an average of 4% lower on intra-Americas. 

“Asia–Europe was September’s relative outperformer,” noted TAC Index. “Shanghai (PVG)–Europe’s 7.47% rise led gains as European entry points absorbed more cross-border ecommerce and time-sensitive cargo, while HKG–Europe’s rise of 3.51% added confirmation. Added freighter capacity and steady postal parcel substitution into EU hubs kept pricing constructive even as exporters juggled documentation requirements.” 

Xeneta also confirmed a move to Asia-Europe ecommerce. 

“Burgeoning ecommerce volumes, a result of the Chinese ecommerce behemoths shifting their focus towards European consumers, helped to push volumes 4% higher on the Asia–Europe corridor in the first three weeks of September, compared with the previous month. China Customs reported year-to-date cross-border ecommerce and low-value goods sales to Europe increased 58% year on year, with August alone up 55%.” 

Cargo Facts Consulting, writing for the Baltic Exchange added: “Chinese exporters in the key ecommerce sector seem to have been switching sales efforts successfully to other markets, notably to Europe, but also to the Middle East, Africa and South America. How long this strategy will continue to work remains to be seen. 

“Asia–Europe should remain the relative outperformer, supported by ecommerce, postal-parcel re-routing, and alternative sourcing from North and South-east Asia. Transpacific strength will depend on how quickly platforms and consolidators adapt labeling, screening, and routing to the new US requirements.” 

However, “relative” outperformer is the key here. No one expects much more than a few weeks’ worth of tightening in the market. 

One European freight forwarder told The Loadstar: “It is really silent. We didn’t have much of a pre-Golden Week peak – there was not that much happening. Okay, the typhoon maybe played a role, but the market didn’t pick up as it used to pre-Golden Week. We still see the transpacific being slow – there’s hardly anything which is really exciting nowadays.” 

He added that there are fairly low expectations.

“Overall, we’ve come to the conclusion that we will see a bit of a pick-up of volumes and rates maybe during November, but we don’t expect a full-quarter peak season, and nothing major from a pricing level, at least from an Asia to Europe and Asia to US perspective.  

“We believe it will be just a few weeks of intensity – but not much.” 

Intra-Asia also remained stable as shippers altered trade flows in the face of US tariffs. 

Kathy Liu, VP global sales & marketing for Dimerco, explained: “September to November is always the peak season for air freight. This year, demand growth is more focused on South-east Asia, particularly Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Singapore. With hi-tech, AI, and semiconductor production increasing in these countries, more finished goods are being shipped out. As a result, we expect capacity pressure at major transit hubs, including Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Korea.” 

There are, as ever, some points of note on the horizon which could impact the market: factory closures in China this week; and holidays in India, culminating in Diwali week, which starts on 17 October.  

And the world is still waiting for the “1 October” US tariffs on pharmaceuticals, (although, as Xeneta pointed out, “the US focus on branded or patented products shields most of India’s pharma exports, which fall under low-cost generic medicines” – while trade deals with the EU and UK will negate new tariffs).  

And then there is ocean freight – airfreight is not in the silo it often thinks it is. Ocean freight rates are at their lowest since before the Red Sea crisis and, with muted demand, making the mode even more attractive than air. And then there are forwarders showing shippers how to cut as much airfreight as possible. The signs are ominous. 

As Xeneta noted: “The global air cargo market is on course for 3%-4% growth in demand in 2025, based on current trading conditions. But after unexpectedly high volumes over the summer, September’s data showed signs of growth slowing heading into the final quarter of the year.”