Before we all get overly excited about the latest pronouncements on Truth Social, the one certainty again is, uncertainty.
There are too many question marks right now for any business looking to prepare. And, like the boy who cried ‘wolf’, companies are tired of second-guessing the details. The announcements on social media are losing their lustre.
So, what’s the latest? Well, nothing is as yet set in stone, or become law – but will likely become an executive order by tonight, if previous announcements are anything to go by. Every company wants a Friday night mic drop, doesn’t it?
But, to the president’s latest decisions (caps, writer’s own):
“Starting October 1st, 2025, we will be imposing a 100% tariff on any branded or patented pharmaceutical product, unless a company IS BUILDING their pharmaceutical manufacturing plant in America. “IS BUILDING” will be defined as, “breaking ground” and/or “under construction.” There will, therefore, be no tariff on these pharmaceutical products if construction has started.
“We will be imposing a 50% tariff on all kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities, and associated products, starting October 1st, 2025. Additionally, we will be charging a 30% tariff on upholstered furniture. The reason for this is the large scale “FLOODING” of these products into the United States by other outside countries. It is a very unfair practice, but we must protect, for national security and other reasons, our manufacturing process.
“In order to protect our great heavy truck manufacturers from unfair outside competition, I will be imposing, as of October 1st, 2025, a 25% tariff on all “heavy (big!) trucks” made in other parts of the world. Therefore, our great large truck manufacturers, such as Peterbilt, Kenworth, Freightliner, Mack Trucks, and others, will be protected from the onslaught of outside interruptions. We need our truckers to be financially healthy and strong, for many reasons, but above all else, for national security purposes!”
These proclamations trigger more questions than answers. First – will the Supreme Court really agree that a tariff on a sofa is in the interest of national security? Is the threat of a rogue beanbag real?
The immediate impact of a 100% tariff on imported pharmaceuticals will be a rise in prices of drugs – something Mr Trump has been noisily against. And there is much wool in the statement about investment in the US – would it impact foreign companies which have already ‘broken ground’ and are producing in the US? And with the extra costs of the H-1B visa – and the ICE raid on Hyundai – will pharma companies really give any more than lip service to the idea of building in the US, in what feels like an extremely risky time both for for staff and investors?
A tariff on heavy-duty trucks could impact our sector even further– what does ‘big’ really mean? And are these tariffs covered by existing trade deals? Mexico is the main exporter of trucks to the US, but claims that 50% of the content of its trucks is US-made, so what would the impact be on US suppliers?
It feels – with the Supreme Court wind blowing – that these latest pronouncements are yet another TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) move; a heavy-handed attempt at a lever to negotiate with various countries, perhaps India in particular, a major exporter of pharmaceuticals, which is said to be nearing the terms of a deal with the US.
The deadline of next Wednesday gives zero preparation time. No company is going to change its entire supply chain overnight on the basis of a possibly illegal decision, announced over social media.
Trump’s TACOmeter – a device by which we can determine the credibility of these tariffs – is running out of road.
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