Against the odds comes in two forms: a column, on merit when warranted, and a monthly excel calculator (see below our previous coverage), which is updated each month. It challenges common sell-side wisdom in financial markets that the future often has better events in store than the past. The vast majority of consensus estimates from analysts, often modelled against a company’s guidance, are a case in point.

In a typical bearish fashion, we aim to highlight critical risks that could affect the ...

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