News / Seasonal peaks fail to lift airfreight as rates mirror past years

Airfreight markets are showing clear signs of subdued demand this year, with global rates unchanged on the same calendar date for the third consecutive year – despite Chinese New Year falling at markedly different times. 

Data from Freightos FAX Terminal indicates that on this week’s date, average global rates were identical in 2024, 2025 and 2026. Yet the CNY holiday window shifted significantly across those years: 10-24 February in 2024, 29 January-12 February in 2025, and 17 February-3 March this year. 

Traditionally, those calendar shifts would be reflected in prices, but it is less clear this year, with global FAX rates peaking on 4 February and declining since.

Forwarders confirmed that the typical pre-CNY rush failed to materialise. 

“Overall demand ahead of CNY is weaker than expected this year,” one Asia–UK forwarder told The Loadstar. “Capacity is generally sufficient to meet demand, despite some airlines cancelling flights.” 

Asked whether the usual surge occurred, the forwarder said: “The typical pre-CNY rush didn’t happen this year.” 

Spot rates on Asia-UK have reflected that dynamic: “More competitive spot rates are mostly available from indirect carriers due to limited direct services, particularly on freighter capacity,” the forwarder said. While overall market rates declined in previous weeks, they stabilised in week eight, with only slight increases in certain origins, such as Hong Kong, in the run-up to the holiday. 

Lana Radzina, CEO of Hegelmann Multimodal, added that this year’s pattern “differs markedly from historical norms”. 

“The usual pre-holiday rate surge has been muted indeed,” she said. “The air freight market is soft overall, with China-Europe spot rates easing in early February amid faster capacity restoration than demand recovery.” 

The data reflects this. Last week freighter capacity between Asia and the US was up 3%, while to the EU it was up 4%. Rates from China to North America have risen steadily in the past three weeks, although have plateaued now, according to Freightos, while China to Europe has been declining, for the most part, since early January. 

Freightos Terminal

While factories are expected to begin to reopen from early March, with a moderate rebound in mid-to-late Q1, Ms Radzina cautioned that rates would remain competitive “due to ample capacity”. The current softness, she added, reflects seasonal lulls and pre-CNY front-loading rather than structural weakness, with tight freighter capacity and Red Sea diversions providing a floor under rates. 

Valentine’s Day shipments also appear to have been absorbed without systemic disruption. Although flower volumes from Latin America and Africa can traditionally create short-term capacity pressure, freighter adjustments this year were corridor-specific rather than global, and did not translate into broader rate volatility. 

According to Rotate, the Latin American flower market demanded capacity earlier that Africa – last week, compared with the week before, saw 12% fewer freighter flights out of Latin America to Europe, while it was down 1% to the US – although overall demand from Ecuador and Colombia has been up on last year, according to Aevean. However, Africa to Europe saw its big leap – up 15% – last week.   

At the same time, industrial flows continue to provide underlying support – but with an end in sight for one new top commodity. 

A surge in aluminium coils flown into the US late last year and this year is expected to end in about six months. 

As previously reported, data from Aevean showed US air imports of aluminium alloy sheets and strips jumping sharply in October and November – equivalent to some 70 widebody freighter flights – as automakers sought to offset production disruptions linked to fires at Novelis’s Oswego, New York plant. 

Novelis has turned to its other plants in the US and overseas, including in Switzerland and South Korea, to help make up for the volume lost from the Oswego plant. According to Aevean, Switzerland and China accounted for the bulk of aluminium exports, with Chicago and New York the main US gateways. 

However, according to the WSJ, repairs at the Oswego facility are now expected to conclude by the end of June, with production gradually ramping up thereafter, potentially easing some of those air movements in the second half. 

So far, the picture for 2026 is one of stability, instead of seasonal stress. Seasonal peaks are being managed smoothly, capacity has largely returned, and while industrial shipments may generate episodic surges, they are not enough to impact pricing.