News / CMA CGM leads rethink on Suez return as political uncertainty rises

Photo: VesselFinder

CMA CGM announced today it would reroute vessels deployed on select Asia-Europe services planned to transit the Suez Canal, due to the heightened political tension in the Middle East.

“In light of the complex and uncertain international context, the CMA CGM group is constantly and closely monitoring all potential impacts on its operations,” the French carrier told customers.

“As a result, the group has decided for the time being to reroute vessels deployed on our FAL1, FAL3 and MEX services via the Cape of Good Hope.”

It added: “The situation will be reviewed regularly.”

Further evidence of carriers retreating from a resumption of Suez transits emerged today when AIS ship-tracking systems recorded the position of the 6,650 teu Maersk Seletar as off the coast of Mozambique, heading for the Cape of Good Hope.

The vessel is deployed on Maersk’s India/Middle East-US east coast MECL1 service and was reported by Xeneta’s senior market analyst, Destine Ozuygur, as having “gone dark” – switching off its AIS systems – at the weekend in order to transit the Suez Canal.

Maersk had notified customers that the MECL1 service would resume westbound Suez transits with the passage of the 8,650 teu Cornelia Maersk – two places behind the Maersk Seletar on the MECL1 rotation, according to Xeneta’s eeSea liner database. It departed Jebel Ali on 15 January and is berthed at the Indian port of Pipavav. After calls at Nhava Sheva and Salalah, it is due to arrive at Suez on 1 February.

Ms Ozuygur also identified two other vessels that had ‘gone dark’ and could be contemplating a Suez transit: the 15,400 teu Maersk Cambridge, deployed on Gemini’s Asia-Med Loop2; and the 15,000 teu Zephyr Lumos, operated by ONE on the Premier Alliance’s Asia-Mediterranean MD2 string.

Both ships switched off AIS reports on 12-13 January after departing Tanjung Pelepas and Singapore, respectively.

“I can’t help but wonder if systemic cloaking is being more widely adopted here to better disguise vessels that do intend to pass through [the canal],” Ms Ozuygur noted.

In a webinar today on the outlook for container shipping in 2026, Drewry’s senior manager of container research, Simon Heaney, said that despite the recent bullishness of CMA CGM in resuming some Suez transits, they were still around 85% below pre-Red Sea crisis numbers.

While today’s announcement is likely to see that number fall further, Mr Heaney also noted that insurance obstacles to Suez transits were coming down.

“We know insurance premiums, as expressed as a percentage of the vessel hull value, are lower than they were at the peak; they’re currently about 0.2% to 0.3%, and that’s down from as much as 1% at the peak. So, insurance cost is now less of an impediment, but cargo owners might push back against their valuable cargo being put at risk,” he said.

“And we know that depending on the direction of the voyage and the size of the ship, the multiple of the goods value versus the ship value can range from five to 10 times, so carriers are likely to take a cautious approach – although there will be different strategies between carriers and different alliances.

“In our view, a hybrid routing is going to be the prevailing mode for this year, whereby carriers are going to start with more backhaul and lower-value-cargo Suez transits, but keep on using the Cape of Good Hope for the higher-value headhaul voyages,” Mr Heaney explained