News / Air cargo rates hold firm into year-end and carriers fine-tune capacity

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Global air cargo markets are closing out the traditional peak season on a firm footing, with pricing momentum continuing despite clear signs of stabilisation on some key lanes.

Today’s data from TAC Index shows rates edging higher again into mid-December, a trend broadly reinforced by WorldACD Market Data’s more granular weekly analysis.

According to TAC Index, the overall Baltic Air Freight Index rose by a further 2.4% in the week to 15 December, leaving it just 0.8% below its level a year earlier.

The near-flat year-on-year comparison underlines what TAC describes as another broadly positive year for the industry, supported by robust demand and capacity constraints, even amid persistent headwinds from tariffs and trade uncertainty.

Rate patterns remain uneven by origin. Outbound pricing from China softened overall last week to both Europe and the US, while spot rates from Hong Kong – after several weeks of sharp gains – showed signs of flattening and then easing as the week progressed. Nevertheless, the broader Hong Kong outbound index, which captures both spot and contract rates, still rose 2.8% week on week, and now sits only 4.2% below last year’s level. Shanghai outbound rates also increased again, up 3.4% WoW, leaving them comfortably above last year’s peak season high by more than 11%.

Elsewhere in Asia, TAC recorded further weekly gains on a range of lanes, including from Seoul and Bangkok, and from Taiwan and Vietnam to Europe. By contrast, rates from India were higher to the US, but slightly lower to Europe, although still well down year on year in both directions.

From Europe, pricing strength was more pronounced. Rates rose again week on week on transatlantic lanes to the US, as well as to China, Japan, Australia, South Africa, and the UAE. Frankfurt’s outbound index jumped 8.2% WoW, while London Heathrow climbed 9.2%, leaving it only marginally below last year’s level.

North American outbound markets were more mixed, with Chicago falling back 14.3% WoW after the previous week’s sharp spike, while Miami-led lanes to South America continued to strengthen.

However, emerging capacity data suggests airlines are beginning to fine-tune supply as the peak season draws to a close. According to Rotate’s live capacity database, freighter capacity on Asia-Europe routes was flat in the most recent week, compared with the average of the previous four weeks, while capacity on the return Europe-Asia leg fell 4%. Asia Pacific-Middle East capacity also declined, by 2%.

By contrast, transatlantic freighter capacity has picked up, with eastbound capacity rising 4% week on week and westbound capacity up 5%. Intra-North America freighter capacity increased 8%, while Europe–Latin America capacity rose 5%, with a 4% increase on the northbound leg. Capacity from Latin America to North America, however, remained flat.

This broadly resilient picture is mirrored in WorldACD Market Data’s latest weekly figures, which show international air cargo spot rates rising by a further 3% week on week in the first week of December. Average global spot rates reached $3.01 per kg in week 49, driven by strong increases from Africa (+11% WoW), Europe (+6%) and Asia Pacific (+4%).

Central & South America was the main exception, with spot rates down 7% week on week, following the end of Chile’s cherry export season, which had temporarily inflated prices on lanes to China.

Despite the recent gains, worldwide spot rates remain 6% lower year on year, with Africa the only major origin region showing higher prices than in 2024.

Asia Pacific continues to stand out as the key driver of pricing momentum. China-US spot rates rose another 8% in week 49, to $6.82 per kg, their highest level this year and slightly above last year’s peak. Across the wider Asia Pacific–US market, rates increased 6% WoW, to $6.32 per kg, boosted by strong gains from China and a 26% weekly spike from Japan.

Asia Pacific–Europe lanes also recorded a 5% WoW risem to $4.65 per kg, led by Japan and South-east Asian origins including Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore.

On the volume side, WorldACD data shows global tonnages edging up 1% week on week in week 49, almost entirely due to a post-Thanksgiving rebound in US traffic. North American volumes jumped 15% WoW, after a similar decline the previous week. Without that recovery, worldwide volumes would have been flat.

Year on year, however, global air cargo demand remains healthy, with total tonnages around 5% higher than this time last year. Asia Pacific volumes are up 9% YoY, Central & South America +8%, Middle East & South Asia +6% and North America +4%.

A notable development has been the recovery of India-US traffic. After an earlier slump linked to higher US import tariffs, volumes from India to the US have stabilised, and have exceeded last year’s levels for five consecutive weeks.

Overall, rates are holding close to last year’s levels, demand remains resilient across most regions, and airlines are now carefully adjusting capacity as the market heads towards year-end and into 2026.

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