News / 'Airfreight business at a crossroads', driven by demand shifts and tariffs

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The airfreight business “is at a crossroads” after six months of unusual demand shifts, and stakeholders await stability on tariffs. 

According to recent data from Trade Data Service (TDS), air imports into the US over the first six months of the year accounted for a higher share of overall import value than is typical for a given period. 

Depending on the month, the split between air and container import value is roughly 40:60, with air’s share ranging between 37% and 44%. But TDS data found that for the first six months of 2025, air import value to the US ranged between 46% and 56%. 

“Air helps when you are in a hurry,” said Frederic Horst, founder and CEO of TDS, and he noted that overall air import weight into the US was up 10% in the first six months of the year compared with the same period in 2024, largely led by imports from Asia Pacific and Europe, which grew 12.2% and 16% respectively.  

And while Q2 saw a drastic decline in ecommerce traffic from China, due to the end of the de minimis exemption, “a massive surge in air imports from Vietnam and Taiwan more than compensated for the drop from China”. 

TDS data showed that, during the first half of this year, imports from Taiwan were up 60% and from Vietnam 76% from H1 24, driven by shipments of computers and accessories. 

“Most of the shifts in volumes have really been from efforts to get ahead or around looming tariff deadlines. For example, given that the effective tariff rate on imports of computers and accessories from China sat at about 17% in June, it’s no wonder these goods started popping up on different lanes,” said Mr Horst.  

He added that the average value per kg of inbound air trade to the US saw a spike between January and March, “which would indicate that the initial round of front-loading focused more on high-value goods”.  

Mr Horst continued: “Tactically, that approach makes a lot of sense. More recently the value per kg has dropped below normal average values. That indicates more inventory-pull-forward of lower-value items.” 

The Loadstar previously reported that the major uncertainty bought by persistent tariff changes has prompted many US importers to front-load and put the likelihood of the traditional peak season into question.   

Not only have the usual seasonal fluctuations been skewed, but TDS found the mix of different commodities had also changed from one month to the next.

“The product groups that have seen the most growth so far this year have been industrial equipment and parts, apparel and footwear, and computers and accessories. Automotive traffic has dropped; that’s a business that is in a world of pain and one that traditionally relies the heaviest on overseas inputs,” said Mr Horst.  

He told The Loadstar: “Everything is all over the place, really; lots of volume shifts, rerouting, and inventory pull-forward. 

“I think the whole airfreight business is at a crossroads, companies are focusing on tactical measures rather than thinking more deeply about where things are heading. 

“The thing I noticed in the latest quarterly results was that companies still believe other markets will compensate for the drop in China to US, and that things will turn out fine.” 

But this is yet to be seen. Tomorrow, so-called ‘reciprocal tariffs’ will hit the US’s key trading partners: Vietnam and Taiwan will see their exports to the US hit with a 20% rate; and India, with 25%.