News / Pre-tariff rush of goods from US to China sees air rates soar, but not for long

@Paitoonpati |

Beijing’s decision to impose higher tariffs on US goods has led to a rush of goods flying into China from the US. The Chinese-imposed tariffs have escalated from 34%, to 84%, and from tomorrow, 125%. 

As a result, air rates into China have quadrupled – or more –  reported a Shanghai forwarder. 

“In the past days, we have done a number of urgent cases for importers here to bring their cargo ex-US to China, which must leave by 10 April to avoid the increased import tariff. 

“There is a huge price increase for air freight ex-US to CN. The usual price from LA to PVG is $0.5-0.8 per kg, but everyone has booked express, or a must-go service, on a price close to $2 per kg, if booked early. If booked later then we have seen the quotes from $5 per kg, even to $11, from the US east coast to PVG.” 

He added that he was moving auto parts and machinery, but he also mentioned a shipment of art props, made in Las Vegas, for a firework show near Beijing.

“We waited not even a second to [import] them – and it was a happy ending as some 5,000kg left LA just a few hours before the tariffs took place. It arrived in Shanghai last night – and we’ve cleared the cargo already, and it’s on the road. We saved the customer over $200,000, based on the 84% tariff.” 

Freighter capacity from the US to China went up 59% in March over February, according to Rotate, while in the year-to-date, compared with the previous year, it was up 21%. 

The forwarder added that the situation was evolving, but that the Chinese market had “been calm so far”. 

“There is no panic, as it was predicted, so there is no ‘big surprise’. 

China has pledged to add no further tariffs, whatever the US does, but it has other levers at its disposal. The forwarder said he expected a deal – “Or it might go even worse, nobody really knows what could be the case, even tomorrow.” 

He added that the uncertainty was leading Chinese exporters to eye new markets. 

“I think many exporters will have to look for alternative markets, they are forced to leave the US market behind, as it doesn’t look likely this trade war between US and CN will end soon. 

“There could be a big potential for the tradelane between China and the rest of the world, including the EU. Some importers here, who have previously used US suppliers, have already started to look for alternative suppliers in other regions, including the EU of course.” 

China is currently courting the EU – along with other Asian nations. 

But while airfreight rates from the US to China have soared, it could be the storm before the calm: Ryan Petersen, CEO of Flexport, told CNBC yesterday: “Air freight rates are likely to plummet.” 

Noting the end of the de minimis exemption on 2 May, he explained: “You’re going to have huge excess capacity in the air freight market coming up, so you’ll see cheaper air freight, and then [cheaper] ocean freight. 

“Maybe that’s some bullishness for customers, as they’re going through a lot, with higher duties and all the other things happening in global logistics. At least there’s some relief there.” 

According to WorldACD, there has been an overall drop in tonnage in the past week, but rates have held firm, and risen 3% in the past fortnight, compared with the previous fortnight. 

Week 14 saw double-digit decreases in volumes, with Middle East and South Asia origin down 24%, while Asia Pacific fell 7%. North America was down 2%. It added: “Worldwide spot rates increased by 1%, WoW, to $2.73 per kg, the highest level seen since the beginning of the year, while worldwide average overall rates, based on a mix of spot and contract rates, edged up 2%, to $2.52 per kg, up 3% year on year.” 

The Asia-North America trade route is obviously in focus right now.

“While demand out of Asia Pacific has remained fairly robust during the first quarter of 2025, we might see a different trend going forward as global uncertainties seem to start impacting international trade flows.  

“Most ominous, there are the escalating tariffs between the US and China, but frequent changes in the US stance on tariffs elsewhere have prompted companies to postpone decisions while their inventory levels are high from front-loading until there is some clarity to plan their next moves.” 

Mr Petersen agreed that his customers – nearly one-third of which paused bookings last week – now have high inventory levels after front-loading. 

“People pre-ordered, they knew this date was coming, they knew these higher duties were coming, and they said, ‘hey, let’s get as much inventory as we can ahead of time’, and now they’re kind of overstocked. 

“The reality is it’s ugly. We’re pretty heavily impacted by this. Our customers are definitely reeling from it.” 

WorldACD week 14 data shows a week-on-week drop in tonnage ex-China and Hong Kong to the US for the first time this year, although volumes are still 3% higher than last year. 

“Flows from China and Hong Kong to Los Angeles show a more pronounced drop of 5%, week on week, now at par with the volumes 12 months ago. Other countries in the Asia Pacific region also saw a significant decline, especially ex-Japan and ex-Taiwan (both -7%, WoW).” 

The Shanghai forwarder added that even if a deal with the US was possible, it would take “a few months”. 

“Based on the present situation – just relax, as there is nothing any of us can do.”