© Edwardgerges risk
© Edwardgerges

ZERO HEDGE reports:

By Michael Every of Rabobank

None so blind as those that will not see

There are none so blind as those who will not see: except those who see things that aren’t there because it also suits their book.

Deflation and Fed rate cuts!” scream the markets selling us ‘transitory’ for two years. Yet US CPI, 0.4% m-o-m headline and core as expected, and 4.9% y-o-y headline, a rounding-error tick lower than consensus, and 5.5% core saw no evidence of that if you dug in rather than stripping whichever elements of high inflation you don’t like this month out. Durable and non-durable goods have stopped deflating on a GDP-style 3-month/3-month annualized basis, which means CPI needs to be led lower by services, which are not doing so ex-housing.

Imagine if agri analysts, instead of making careful, honest forecasts based on the complex factors impacting on supply and demand –and the realpolitik of what producers and consumers are both willing to hear– made deliberately ridiculous forecasts just to push prices higher, so they would get paid more. That’s not how it works there, of course. But it is sadly how naïve economists with mean reverting models combine with shillltastic ‘Dow 36,000!’ types and 0DTE options nowadays…

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