Logistics losers and winners – trucking and shipping – but the tide may turn
Road freight stakeholders are currently “the losers” in logistics – in stark contrast to their ...
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The pervasive headwinds of Q4 24 translated into yet another decline in ocean shipping schedule reliability – but there are signs of a welcome respite for shippers on the horizon.
Liner database eeSea today published its Schedule Reliability Scorecard, which reveals average delays reached 4.8 days globally in Q4, up on Q3’s average of 4.5 days.
The period was “rife with challenges, and it shows”, said eeSea.
“While still comfortably shy of the worst global delays of 7.7 days during the peak Covid years, 2024 delay averages for each quarter sit firmly in the early-mid 2021 range of between four and five days,” it added.
Strikes at Canada’s west coast ports of Vancouver and Prince Rupert meant transpacific trade suffered a decline of 1.6 days. However, the region “displayed resiliency in the face of heavy odds” when compared with the Asia-US east coast trade, which saw a decline of 3.2 days as a result of the three-day ILA strike at ports there at the beginning of October.
However, eeSea also notes that persistent reliability decline could be “on the way out”.
“Global reliability continues to decline in moderation, but there are signs of relief amongst specific trades and hope for Red Sea crisis-impacted regions,” it said.
The additional 0.3-day delay seen in Q4 compares with a 0.5 increase in Q3, 0.6 days in Q2, and 0.9 days in Q1, indicating that reliability was at least improving. And, according to eeSea data, delays on Asia-North Europe stabilised in Q3 24 and improved in Q4 by 0.1 day, while the Asia-Mediterranean trade “made a big comeback”, gaining back 1.7 days.
Listen to this Loadstar Podcast clip for an Asia-Europe and Transpacific contracting update from Henrik Schilling, Managing Director Global Commercial Development at Hapag-Lloyd AG, speaking to host Mike King:
“This positive trend could be massively boosted in Q1 25 if the Israel-Gaza ceasefire holds,” added eeSea.
According the the scorecard, Danish carrier Maersk retained its title as the most reliable carrier, with an average delay of 2.4 days, followed by CMA CGM at 3.6 days, Cosco at four days, and Hapag-Lloyd at 4.7 days.
“With the grand promise of 90% reliability on everyone’s minds and network overhauls just around the corner, could the first half of 2025 witness Hapag-Lloyd finally joining its Gemini alliance partner in the top three in the operator rankings?” asked eeSea.
Listen to this clip from The Loadstar Podcast to hear Henrik Schilling, Managing Director Global Commercial Development at Hapag-Lloyd AG, speaking to host Mike King about why Hapag-Lloyd is optimistic about 2025:
However, Alan Mctaggart, VP of global logistics at Techtronic Industries, told The Freight Buyer’s Club podcast that this “utopia” was “neither plausible nor paramount” for shippers.
“I’m sorry to say, 90% schedule reliability, I wouldn’t want to put too much wager on that, but I wouldn’t hold that against either of the companies involved in Gemini, I’m just not sure if it’s achievable,” he said.
“I do not expect it and I do not need it. Most large shippers do not consider it critical, given that the transit time is a week or a week and a half.“The critical thing is the visibility of the transit time, the coordination with the carrier, and the management of the vendors at origin and their performance on time,” added Mr Mctaggart.
Zim, meanwhile, “fell stunningly low, to eighth place [from third in Q1 24], at the close of the year”, after its schedule reliability declined by an additional 2.1 days against Q3, to reach 5.7 days.
In terms of alliances, the Ocean and standalone services were “neck and neck” in as the most reliable groupings, both posting 4.2 days average delay, while the soon-to-be disbanded 2M and THE alliances saw average delays of five days and 7.4 days, respectively.
“If Q1 and Q2 25 network overhauls prove tricky to navigate for old and new alliances alike, we may see non-alliance services take the lead for the first time since 2023,” writes eeSea.
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