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A “fundamental shift” in the deployment of container shipping capacity ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday next month and “significantly higher” volumes, could lead to bottlenecks, according to Sea-Intelligence analysis.
The maritime consultancy compared projected 2026 capacity deployment against a 2015-2019 historical baseline, focusing on the 10-week period between Golden Week in early October and CNY, with “week 1” being the week before CNY.
According to the analysis, the Asia-North America West Coast trade has shown a move toward “high-amplitude, reactive changes”, it said adding that the 2026 projection “indicates a fundamental shift in capacity management”.
Between 2015 and 2019, capacity on this lane was defined by “extreme stability”, with volume staying within a narrow 5% band, moving from a 280,241 teu base to a marginal peak of 287,799 teu.
However, the 2026 projection shows a late-season surge of capacity, from a baseline of 293,923 teu to a peak of 382,822 teu in week 2, representing a 30% increase of more than 88,000 teu.
And, with capacity withdrawn in the final week before CNY ,to 326,340 teu, volumes remain 11% higher than at the start of the period.
Sea-Intelligence says: “This indicates that the 2015-2019 ‘flat’ capacity deployment has been replaced by a late-season spike that carries a much higher risk of port congestion in the final two weeks before the CNY holiday.”
It also cautioned that a sharp 15% week-on-week reduction in week 1 raised the risk of cargo rollovers, potentially delaying shipments across the holiday period.
To North America East Coast, capacity from Asia is also projected to depart from the historical pattern.
Traditionally, capacity on this trade gradually declined toward the holiday, but this year capacity is projected to remain elevated throughout the window, peaking at 254,156 teu by week 6, and remaining 25% above baseline one week before CNY.
Sea-Intelligence suggested this was a deliberate strategy by the carriers – a sustained, high-capacity model, adding: “The North American tradelanes have replaced historical stability with high-amplitude volatility.
“For shippers, the late-cycle timing of the transpacific capacity changes carries a significantly higher risk of pre-holiday bottlenecks and cargo rolls, as massive volume is injected into Asia-North America West Coast with almost no operational runway remaining.”
However, it is the Asia-North Europe lane that has exhibited the “most significant volume expansion”, in absolute terms, according to the analyst.
“Historically, this tradelane saw a moderate seasonal increase, of roughly 10% (from 241,028 teu to a 265,147 teu peak). For 2026, the scale of this movement has quadrupled in intensity.”
Indeed, Asia-North Europe capacity is projected to surge nearly 50% above the 282,947 teu baseline, reaching more than 421,000 teu by Week 6. And alhough capacity eases after this early peak, the final week before CNY still sits at a projected 342,894 teu.
Sea-Intelligence interprets this as a front-loading strategy, which it explained was likely driven by longer Asia–Europe transit times and a desire to buffer inventories well ahead of CNY.
“By flooding the tradelane early, shippers aim to ensure that their European inventory is buffered before the planned CNY capacity withdrawal begins,” it said.
A recent Loadstar report also suggested the peak season on this trade had shifted to December, January, and February, with forwarders indicating that space would likely be at a premium over the coming weeks.
Finally, looking at capacity growth in percentage terms, the Asia-Mediterranean tradelane shows the highest jump. Capacity on this lane peaks at 62% above its 171,664 teu baseline to 278,172 teu in week 7 and ends the period almost 31% higher than its entry level.
Graph: Sea-Intelligence
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