News / Asia-Europe air cargo routes lengthen after Iran alert – rates falling

© Bj�rn Wylezich

UPDATED 21.1.26 TO INCLUDE AF-KLM-MP STATEMENT

Airlines are continuing to avoid Iranian airspace following a safety warning, forcing some Asia-Europe services onto less-direct routings and adding cost at a time when air freight rates are easing. 

In a Conflict Zone Information Bulletin last week, EASA warned of a “high risk to civil flights operating at all altitudes” within Iran’s Tehran Flight Information Region (OIIX), citing heightened alert levels of Iranian air defence forces and the risk of misidentification amid the potential for US military action. 

EASA recommended that air operators not operate within Iranian airspace and urged ‘caution and contingency planning’ when routing through neighbouring countries, particularly those hosting US military bases. 

Several airlines have publicly acknowledged changes to their operations. A spokesperson for AF-KLM-MP Cargo said: “Martinair Cargo is currently avoiding Iranian airspace to ensure the safety of our operations and, above all, our people. The current unpredictable security situation in the Middle East makes it necessary to take additional precautionary measures.

“Rerouting results in longer flight paths, on average between 10 and 30 minutes per flight. This leads to higher fuel consumption and may have an impact on scheduled departure and arrival times, as well as on the airport slots we are required to adhere to.

“Despite these adjustments, our Middle East operations remain fully viable. By closely monitoring security developments and taking appropriate measures in a timely manner, we are well prepared for unforeseen situations and able to continue our cargo operations in the region.”

Lufthansa Cargo told The Loadstar: “Following the current EASA recommendation to avoid Iranian airspace, some of our services to and from India may experience slightly longer flight times on selected routings.

“The north-eastern Iranian corridor is only one of several routing options available to us. Flight planning routinely evaluates multiple alternatives and selects the most efficient option based on weather conditions and prevailing winds. As a result, the overall impact on our schedules and cargo operations remains limited.

“At this stage, we do not see any significant effects on network stability or service reliability.”

Other European carriers, including British Airways, have been reported as adjusting routings or suspending services in the region, while Indian airlines, such as Air India and IndiGo, issued passenger advisories during Iran’s temporary airspace closure, warning of rerouting and potential delays. 

Avoiding Iranian airspace requires flights between Asia and Europe to turn either north through Central Asia or south via the Arabian peninsula, diversions that can increase block hours and operating costs. 

However, capacity data suggests that there is ample supply, despite the possibly longer flights. 

According to Rotate, global freighter capacity yesterday was up 8% week on week. Asia to Europe saw 13% growth, while Asia to North America was up 9%. Even bigger increases were seen elsewhere, with EU-North America up 14%, Latin America to EU up 18%, and EU to LatAm up 36%.  

That capacity growth has coincided with a softening in spot rates, after last week’s rise. 

Today’s data from TAC Index shows the global Baltic Air Freight Index fell 3.3% week on week, leaving it 3.6% lower year on year. On Asia-Europe lanes, rates out of China edged down week on week, though they remain comfortably above year-ago levels. 

In Europe, rates weakened more sharply. TAC’s index of outbound routes from Frankfurt  dropped 7.5% week on week and is now down 12.2% year on year, while Heathrow fell 7.4% week on week, though it remains slightly higher, year on year. 

The data points to a post-peak demand softening, with rising capacity exerting downward pressure on prices. 

With Chinese New Year still several weeks away, there is little sign yet of a demand-driven rebound. Unless volumes pick up meaningfully, the combination of expanding capacity and easing demand is likely to keep rates under pressure, even as airlines navigate longer routings and higher costs in response to the heightened geopolitical risk.