News / Ocean Alliance the capacity heavyweight, with rivals in 'a competitive scramble'

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In terms of capacity offered to shippers, the Ocean Alliance members – CMA CGM, Cosco, OOCL and Evergreen – have stolen a clear march on rival groupings, according to new analysis from Sea-Intelligence Consulting.

The reorganisation of the alliance networks began in February, but it has taken several months to realise the fallout from the divorce of 2M partners Maersk and MSC: MSC’s relaunch as a standalone operator; Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd’s Gemini marriage; and the break-up of THE Alliance, with Hapag’s departure to Gemini and ONE, Yang Ming and HMM reuniting as the Premier Alliance.

However, with the old networks now fully phased out, and the replacements up and running, it appears the Ocean Alliance carriers are by far the largest capacity providers on the two transpacific trades, as well as on the Asia-North Europe trade, but with Asia-Med the one major east-west route where its dominance has yet to be established.

According to vessel schedules for the remainder of 2025, the Ocean Alliance is set to continue a capacity expansion push the consultancy said would leave it unequivocally the leading capacity provider next year too, leaving its competitors in its wake.

“In essence, the stage is set for a year defined by one alliance’s push for supremacy and a reactive scramble among all others to defend their footing in a rapidly consolidating market,” Sea-Intelligence said.

And, despite the now-in force US Trade Representative port fees on Chinese operators and Chinese-built vessels, the Ocean Alliance is set to increase its market share on both the Asia-North America east and west coast trades – from 35% currently to 37% by the end of the year to the west coast, and from 36% to as much as 40% on the east coast lane.

In contrast, the Premier Alliance, MSC and other independent transpacific operators have all largely maintained a steady market share – although MSC has recently deployed new capacity to the US east coast, while the Gemini partners have seen their market share on the transpacific west coast gradually soften this year.

Source: Sea-Intelligence Consulting (click to expand)

On the Asia-North Europe trade, the Ocean Alliance is pushing for an even greater market share, which is expected to hit 41% by the end of the year at the expense of Gemini, whose market share is forecast to shrink from 27% to 24% to 25%, with MSC and the Premier Alliance unchanged.

Source: Sea-Intelligence Consulting

“This transforms the dynamic from a clear hierarchy into a competitive scramble for the distant second, third, and fourth positions, with Gemini, Premier and MSC potentially ending the year much closer to each other,” Sea-Intelligence noted.

It is only on the Asia-Mediterranean trade where the picture is different, although heading in a similar direction – MSC has been the largest operator for most of the year, but is expected to drop to second place by the end of the year, much of which is due to expected capacity reductions by Gemini, and led Sea-Intelligence to predict “a fierce two-way battle for market leadership” on the trade.

Source: Sea-Intelligence Consulting

However, the aggressive capacity expansion being planned by the Ocean Alliance carriers could also mean the freight rate war developing on the Asia-Europe trades could heat up, should demand not recover.