Is the 'peak season' an outdated concept?

Should the whole concept of a peak season be discarded as global container supply chains find themselves roiled by a series of geopolitical and economic shocks?

“The idea of a ‘peak season’ is becoming outdated,” said Renee Toh, VP of global ocean freight at Rhenus.

“Instead of one predictable surge, we are seeing demand fluctuate in multiple waves across the year. Volumes are less consistent, more reactive and increasingly driven by external factors, from disruptions to cost expectations and retail cycles.

“Calling it an ‘early peak season’ oversimplifies what is actually a structural shift in how global trade flows,” she added.

The Loadstar has previously reported how carriers have recently been attempting to maximise peak season revenues by aggressively managing shippers’ allocations – especially with many attempting to front load shipments before new bunker adjustment factors are introduced on 1 July – and leaving both forwarders and shippers scrambling for slots out of Asia.

“We have had four major BCOs who have very large contracts with the carriers come to us recently asking for any spare space because they cannot get anything from the lines,” one European forwarder told The Loadstar recently.

“We think this could go on all the way through to mid-August, given booking levels for the first half of July and then the fact that the carriers will have to work through the roll pools building up.

“There might be some moderation following that but pretty soon after we’re at Golden Week when the pressure will start building again,” he added.

In practice, this could mean an elongated peak season characterised by shifting demand levels stretching all the way from mid-May to mid-August and possibly into September, lending some credence to the Ms Toh’s analysis, which argued that “the focus is shifting away from planning around fixed seasonal cycles toward continuously adapting to changing market signals, including securing capacity earlier, optimising container utilisation, diversifying transport options and strengthening visibility.

“The idea that supply chains have returned to a stable rhythm no longer reflects reality – businesses need to operate in a constant state of adjustment, where flexibility and real-time insight are essential to staying ahead of demand shifts and disruptions,” she added.

However, concrete evidence of an early peak on the Asia-Europe trades ought to be seen in the next two to three weeks, said analysts at Sea-Intelligence Consulting, if spot rates hit their apex in that period.

“Apart from the oddities of the pandemic, we see a development where the peak season does appear to happen earlier, with 2025 seeing the earliest peak so far – in week 27, i.e. at the beginning of July.

“We do not yet know when we will see the seasonal peak in 2026, as spot rates continue to trend upwards, but on the basis of the development seen in the last couple of years, we could potentially expect to see the apex reached within the next two to three weeks,” Sea-Intelligence said yesterday.

And it noted that last year’s spot rate apex on the transpacific trades took place in week 24, while in 2024 it was in week 28 and 2023 it took place in week 32, while prior to the pandemic the apex was between weeks 35 and 37.

“In recent years, the peak apex has shifted quite distinctly to a much earlier time – we are presently at the end of week 24, 2026, and do not yet know whether we have reached the apex or not.

“The market momentum appears to point towards further strengthening, but the development of the past three years would also appear to imply we might be getting quite close to the apex of the peak season 2026,” it added.