Will Brexit close the doors on Open Skies?

© Giovanni Gagliardi

The big Brexit question in aviation is whether the UK will continue to be in the European Common Aviation Area – a scenario that currently (although things are changing by the minute) seems pretty likely. ATW has done a good piece on the possible exit of the UK from the EU-US open skies agreement, while for a full breakdown on possible consequences for aviation, IATA was quick to provide a thorough analysis. Essentially, while it’s bad for outbound transport, the worthless pound is good for inbound. But in the longterm, to 2030, the OECD has estimated that UK trade volumes could fall 10-20%, although this could all, of course, be down to negotiation. The basic trade-off is policy power versus access to free markets, as this handy chart shows.

IATA