News / Scotus recess leaves US importers still waiting for tariff ruling

ID 372347732 © Eva Maria Corbella

After the US Supreme Court justices enjoy a four-week recess set to commence next week, the next possible date for a Scotus ruling on the Trump administration’s IEEPA tariffs is 20 February. 

If the court rules the tariffs illegal, US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) would likely stop collecting tariff revenue immediately while implementing a refund process.  

However, in a recent update, Flexport noted that it was unclear how much discretion the Scotus order would give CBP in how it can issue refunds, or if the justices would first determine which importers would be eligible for refunds. 

“Meanwhile, the Trump administration could potentially leverage other statutes – including Sections 301, 232, and 338 – to re-implement its tariffs or introduce new ones,” Flexport warned.  

The forwarder explained that should Scotus uphold the tariffs, the case could return to the lower courts for another review. A ruling may also offer “partial relief” by upholding some IEEPA tariffs, while striking down others. 

Should an early ruling emerge, from 6 February CBP would begin issuing all refunds electronically, except in limited circumstances. 

To receive these, and avoid delays, importers must have an Automated Commercial Environment (ACE) Portal account. 

However, Pete Mento, director for global trade advisory services at Baker Tilly, said that if Scotus did rule out China IEEPA tariffs, the recovery story “does not stop at customs”.  He added: “It could mean billions in tax refunds as well.” 

“Customs brokers are excellent at moving freight and managing entries. Trade attorneys are excellent at arguing on your behalf when it all goes pear-shaped. But when duties get embedded into landed cost and then flow into state sales and use tax bases, we’ve officially left the trade dock and entered tax country. Different map. Different rules. Different statute clocks ticking.” 

Mr Mento explained that as duties accumulated, they became part of the taxable base, and if those duties were invalidated, companies may have paid state tax “they were never supposed to pay in the first place”.

“The tariff story starts at the border. The real recovery opportunity may end in the state tax code,” he summarised. “Stop stalling. Stop hoping your brokers have a plan, the staff and the systems for all of this – they don’t – really, they don’t.” 

Meanwhile, at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released a surprisingly positive January World Economic Outlook, despite the tariff turmoil.  

It projects global GDP growth of 3.3% this year, a slight upward revision from the October forecast, before easing marginally to 3.2% in 2027.  

Maritime consultancy Braemar said: “The central message is that the global economy has proved steadier and more resilient than expected, particularly in the face of US trade tariffs that were widely expected to have a more damaging impact 12 months ago. 

“This points to broad stability in near-term economic activity, despite ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty,” it said.  

At Davos President Donald Trump had a lot to say regarding his recent endeavours to annex Greenland, and place tariffs on European countries not in support.  

However, he claimed he and NATO’s secretary general had agreed a “framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland and the entire Arctic region”, and revoked that tariff threat on eight European trading partners.