News / Importers race to beat the deadline for looming EU ecommerce fee

Photo: © Nitsuki

The EU’s planned introduction of a €3 fee for low-value ecommerce shipments from 1 July is expected to create fresh volatility in Asia-Europe air cargo markets.

Forwarders are warning of a pre-deadline surge in volumes and uncertainty over how quickly demand will normalise afterwards. 

During a market update, Arno Hausch, head of air freight for German-speaking markets and the Nordics at Flexport, identified the measure as one of the importer’s key concerns, alongside Middle East capacity and jet fuel cost.  

According to Flexport, the impending change is already influencing shipping patterns as ecommerce companies attempt to move goods before the new fee takes effect. 

Mr Hausch noted similarities with the market behaviour seen ahead of the US de minimis reform, which drove a temporary spike in demand and put pressure on available capacity. 

“We saw that when this was implemented into the US, and we saw here also a pre-rush, putting more pressure on capacity and increasing demand on the Asia into Europe lane,” he added. 

Flexport has outlined two potential scenarios for the market after 1 July. 

Under what Mr Hausch described as a “relief window”, the pre-deadline surge would subside and ecommerce volumes could fall by 15% to 20%, largely China-EU traffic. Combined with improving capacity from Middle East carriers, this would lead to softer spot rates through July and August before the traditional peak season. 

However, in a less favourable outcome, ecommerce operators rapidly adapt to the new customs requirements, allowing volumes to continue flowing. Any capacity released would then be absorbed by growing demand from AI and technology hardware shippers, while continued disruption in the Middle East would keep capacity constrained. Rates would remain elevated and could increase further into the fourth quarter. 

“Scenario A is more likely to happen than scenario B, but you have to be prepared for both,” he said. 

Meanwhile, the uncertainty extends beyond freight markets. During a panel discussion at TIACA’s recent Executive Summit in Warsaw, Craig Strickland, chief sales officer at BoxC, said implementation details were still being refined. 

“There’s still nuances that are still being worked on throughout the month of June in preparation for the 1 July date,” he said. 

Mr Strickland explained that software providers and customs stakeholders were continuing preparations, but also warned of operational challenges in the early stages. 

“Customs is aligned; they’re still working through the minutia on that, based on follow-up and conversation this month, and there will definitely be a lot of rocky bumps,” he said. 

Nevertheless, he expects cross-border ecommerce demand to remain resilient, despite the additional compliance requirements and costs. 

“I know for a fact that ecommerce will continue to occur,” Mr Strickland said.