News / Russian plan to ban foreign carriers may be 'symbolic' gesture

Kremlin plans to prohibit non-Russian containerships calling at the country’s ports will add further stress to an already buckling global system as the nation aims to gain leverage as it continues to struggle with sanctions.

Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU) released intel that the Russian parliament was drafting a decree to effectively block leading carriers from providing market capacity, with CMA CGM, Maersk, OOCL, and X-Press Feeders expressly banned.

As reported by Premium this week, the decision could be as much about shoring up the post-Ukraine invasion reality by ensuring the Russian state retains control over which shipping lines enter, as it is about damaging foreign carriers.

Destine Ozuygur, senior analyst at Xeneta, told The Loadstar that since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine nearly all mainline operators had pulled services from Russia, with MSC the only one remaining, with two services.

“Just one of which is Ecuador NWC-US to Saint Petersburg – connecting Europe to South America. I think people are also surprised to hear that there are three directly connecting the US to St Petersburg, one being this MSC string,” she said.

“From a network perspective, nearly all of the services that are still actively connecting to Russia are operated by the likes of Fesco, MLine, SFT, and the other regional and so-called ‘friendly’ operators.”

Given that this has been the reality for more than four years, there is also the sense that the Kremlin is shoring up its post-Ukraine reality to allow it to get a better grip on its supply chains, which have been operating under an ad-hoc basis for several years.

Opportunistic newcomers, primarily Chinese and Russian, have tried to fill the vacuum created by the mainline operators, but seaborne container shipments to Russia have been falling since 2024, due to weakened consumption and a pivot to land transport.

Linerlytica’s data show that, as of this week, total capacity on Russia Far East services had fallen to 72 ships, of 80,173 teu, a 19% year-on-year drop. Average vessel capacity on these services is 1,114 teu.

And Linerlytica analyst Tan Hua Joo told The Loadstar the move by the Kremlin may best be considered “largely symbolic, as Russian volumes are down anyway” – although it has been suggested the decision followed lobbying by Russian shipping lines.

Another source told The Loadstar they found the timing questionable, suggesting it may be “opportunistically aligned with their veto of the UNSC proposal to secure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz”.

They added: “Russia is one of the largest producers of crude oil and refined products, so they already stand to gain from the Persian Gulf conflict and can continue to use their bargaining power if this ’tollbooth’ system continues to restrict oil shipments.”

On the container side, pointing out that “the entire global supply chain” was already under immense strain from energy disruptions, they said that Russia signalling such a ban would only add to this.

“If they tighten restrictions around trade, they make trade with Russian ports logistically and bureaucratically more complicated to carry out. They are increasing stress on the system and positioning some indirect leverage.”