News / Pre-CNY bounce for ocean spots ex-Asia – but 'shippers must be wary'

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2026 has started with a jump in container spot freight rates, with double-digit increases across lanes ex-Asia.

With Christmas Day and New Year’s Day falling on successive Thursdays, Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) yesterday ended a fortnight’s hiatus and registered double-digit increases on Asia-North America and Asia-Europe trades.

The Asia-Europe trades are now clearly in the midst of a pre-Chinese New Year peak season, with forwarders reporting to The Loadstar that January bookings remained strong, with shippers taking into account “the longer transit time around the Cape of Good Hope and possible port congestion in Europe, especially with the weather at the moment,” one said.

The strong demand is reflected in the way spot rates have continued to increase, while carriers have, simultaneously, added capacity to both Asia-North Europe and Asia-Mediterranean trades for this month.

“With Lunar New Year just over a month away, shippers will ramp up efforts to get goods out of the Far East before the holiday shutdown, so there will be further upward pressure on rates,” advised Peter Sand, Xeneta’s chief analyst.

“The question is whether the expected increase in deployed capacity will be enough to outweigh higher demand,” he added.

Yesterday’s WCI recorded a 10% gain over the previous fortnight on Shanghai-Rotterdam, to $2,840 per 40ft, while the Shanghai-Genoa leg was up 13% over the same period, to end at $3,885 per 40ft.

Its Asia-North Europe rate is in alignment with Xeneta’s XSI Far East-North Europe leg, which yesterday stood at $2,844 per 40ft, 10.8% higher than on 31 December, while capacity was up 6.8% on the previous week, reaching 317,058 teu.

Source: Xeneta

There could well be further price increases next week if demand remains strong. MSC advised it was hiking its Asia-North Europe FAK (freight all kinds) rate to $4,000 per 40ft on 15 January, and Asia-Mediterranean FAK rates increased to $5,500-$5,700 per 40ft.

The WCI also showed strong double-digit gains on both transpacific trades, with its Shanghai-Los Angeles leg up 26% on 25 December, to $3,132 per 40ft, and Shanghai-New York up 20%, to hit $3,957 per 40ft.

Source: Drewry Supply Chain Advisors

(One interesting side observation: on 25 December, the WCI recorded  a Shanghai-Genoa rate of $3,247 per 40ft, around $100 more than the Shanghai-New York rate, the first time in living memory that it has cost more to ship a box from Asia to the Mediterranean than to the North American east coast)

“A traditional pre-Lunar New Year cargo rush is a key driver behind dramatic increases in spot rates out of the Far East – up almost 60% into the US west coast compared with a month ago,” Mr Sand said.

“The recent increases are dramatic, particularly into the US, but the longer-term expectation is for spot rates to come down, so shippers must be wary when entering long-term contract negotiations.”

Meanwhile, carriers have retained broadly the same amount of capacity on both trades, compared with the end of last year, and transpacific forwarders remained doubtful that the recent increases have much chance of holding.

Los Angeles-based forwarder Freight Right said the early January spot rate spike was underpinned by a “short-lived” general rate increase that was already fading.

“Within days, rates were rolled back by roughly $1,000, settling back into the $1,800–$2,200 per 40ft range, with most market activity clustering around $2,000–$2,100.

“Promotional rates in the high-$1,800s reappeared quickly, as carriers struggled to secure volume,” it said, adding that despite a difference in price levels, the same trajectory was expected on the Asia-US east coast trade over January.