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Oil prices are expected to rise in the second half of this year as markets “move close to balance”, according to the International Energy Agency. It has adjusted its forecasts: in February the agency said it had raised its estimates of a global surplus. But falling US shale production, a slower than expected resumption of Iranian oil exports, and declines in non-OPEC oil, means the IEA now expects the surplus will fall to 200,000 barrels a day in the last six months of the year – down from 1.5 million in the first half.

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