News / Gulf airspace closures slash Asia-Europe air cargo capacity by nearly 40% 

Air cargo capacity on key Asia-Europe corridors has plunged 39% following the shutdown of major Gulf airspace and hubs amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East. And rates are on the rise.

Using representative pre-Chinese New Year levels as a baseline, consultancy Aevean estimates that capacity across the Asia Pacific-Middle East and South Asia-Europe corridors is down 39% in available cargo tonne km (ACTK) since the closures began. 

The sharp contraction reflects the sudden loss of some of the world’s most important cargo transit hubs, including Doha, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi, as airspace restrictions forced airlines to suspend flights or reroute services. 

The disruption is magnified by the pivotal role Gulf carriers play in global air freight. Qatar Airways Cargo, Emirates SkyCargo, and Etihad together account for roughly 13% of global air cargo capacity, and their hubs function as key east-west transfer points. 

Freightos estimates that around a quarter of China-Europe air cargo capacity normally transits the Middle East, meaning the sudden loss of these hubs is reverberating far beyond the region. 

While overall capacity has dropped sharply, airlines have begun adapting their networks. 

Analysis by Aevean indicates that direct Asia-Europe cargo capacity has increased by roughly 13–14%, as airlines bypass Gulf stopovers and operate longer non-stop sectors where possible. 

But direct flying cannot fully replace the connectivity provided by the Gulf’s hub-and-spoke networks, leaving significant gaps in available lift. 

The impact is particularly acute for South and Southeast Asian exports, which rely heavily on transit through the Middle East for shipments heading west. Freightos reports that shippers on these lanes are already facing delays and scrambling to secure alternative routings as capacity tightens. 

Losses are most severe in the Gulf itself, where cargo capacity has dropped by about 80%, while South Asia is down roughly 33% and the Levant and Caucasus around 30%, according to Aevean’s analysis. 

Early signs of market pressure are emerging. The Freightos Air Index shows weekly price increases on several major lanes: 

• China-North America: $6.39/kg, up 2%; 

• China-Northern Europe: $3.49/kg, up 7%; 

• Northern Europe-North America: $2.74/kg, up 3%. 

While increases remain modest so far, the loss of capacity and ongoing rerouting suggest further volatility. 

For airlines and freight forwarders, the immediate challenge is rerouting aircraft, managing displaced cargo and rebuilding networks around closed airspace, a process that could reshape global air freight flows if the disruption continues.