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European road freight rates under contract overtook spot rates in the final quarter of last year, for the first time since mid-year 2017, according to the Quarterly Road Freight Benchmark report, jointly produced by Upply, Transport Intelligence, and the IRU.
Since launching the pan-European road freight rate index at the beginning of 2017, the index base of 100, set in January that year, the only time contract rates have been more expensive than spots was in the second quarter of that year.
However, quarter four last year ended with the contract rate index at 136.9, while the spot rate level had flattened, to 135.1.
Source: Upply
“Contract rates climbed to 136.9, a solid 2.6-point increase quarter on quarter, and a 3.1-point rise year on year.
“Meanwhile, spot rates reached 135.1, advancing modestly by 0.3 points from the previous quarter, but declining 3.3 points compared with the same period last year,” the report says.
It suggests the main reason behind the strengthening contract rates was a pre-Christmas boost to retail spending across Europe, particularly in November.
“Retail trade volumes jumped 2.3% year on year across both the eurozone and EU, according to Eurostat, following a revised 1.9% growth in October.
“This sustained consumer demand helps explain the uptick in contract rates, as businesses are expecting stronger demand in the upcoming months, and locking in contracts now,” it says.
It adds that marginal increases in operating costs for hauliers in the fourth quarter – with fuel up 0.7% quarter on quarter, driver costs up 1.3%, and finance and insurance up 4.2% – helped push up contract rates.
In terms of demand, it notes that early data suggests full-year growth of 2% across the European market, compared with 2024, which is set to level-off this year, with the IRU now forecasting a 0.6% volume growth for 2026.
One of Europe’s largest haulers, DSV, today reported its financial results for 2025, its management characterising the European road freight market as having “reached the bottom”, noting that volumes are beginning to tick up, with “1% or 2% growth, as we speak”.
It added it expected modest growth in its road division, with some stabilisation in volumes after a market trough, but remained cautious given the European market’s overall conditions.
“While growth for next year is modest, road freight volumes should reach the 2021 record levels,” Upply, Ti, and the IRU said. “Large uncertainties remain, as geopolitical tensions and related tariff changes might jeopardise goods flow between major economies.
“However, the recently signed EU–Mercosur agreement might boost trade flows between the EU and South America. The treaty greatly reduces tariffs between the two regions, which, combined with greater goods flow between China and the EU, could increase transport demand for EU carriers,” their report argues, and further notes that the sustained growth of container imports into Europe from China seen over the course of last year, could also provide strong volumes for hauliers.
“A stronger euro and cheaper energy will all help stimulate consumption, therefore putting upward pressure on rates, though real wage growth will decelerate compared to 2025.
“Competitive pressure from Chinese imports might put more upwards pressure on port routes, inching rates upwards.”
However, finding the drivers to service that growth will continue to be a problem for many road freight operators, with driver shortages – as measured by the number of unfilled vacancies – growing again last year and beginning to near the half-a-million mark in Europe alone.
Source: IRU
“The shortage increased by 18,000 drivers, for a total of 444,000 unfilled positions in 2025 for the EU.
“The shortage is notably acute for Eastern operators and for Spanish operators, fleets covering a great share of international operations in the EU.
“German operators are also facing a high level of unfilled positions, another difficulty for the industry as Germany is the first market in terms of road freight volumes,” it says.
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