News / Ecommerce could drive demand for air cargo – but may impact yields

ID 51670504 © Jakub Jirsak

Airlines could benefit from an upswing in demand, led by ecommerce, delegates at the Caspian Air Cargo Summit in Baku heard this week.

But there are warnings this could lead to major yield imbalances. 

“Airfreight is cyclical, but I think we’re now on the cusp of an upswing,” predicted Martin Drew, chief strategy and transformation officer at Atlas Air. 

“March and April saw strong growth, and June was led by Asia Pacific and Latin America. The Q2 results across the industry show that revenues and volumes were holding up quite well despite the headwinds,” he explained. 

“Commerce and trade are like water in a stream; when it hits a rock, it just goes around. And that is exactly what we’re seeing now… These ecommerce players’ [such as Shein and Temu] digital marketing capabilities are just incredible in how quickly they can shift flows.” 

Indeed, Marco Bloemen, MD of Aevean, told delegates that “despite everything that is going on in the US”, ecommerce had still seen 18% growth so far this year, over 2024. 

According to Aevean data, in 2018 there was some 800,000 tons of ecommerce flown, then Covid hit, “and we started to shop online like crazy”. There is now close to 5m tons of ecommerce flying around the world.  

“Considering that we have 23m tons of regular air freight, we are now getting to a serious decent share,” said Mr Bloemen. 

“This is not over,” he added. “We saw the role of ecommerce versus air freight on the transpacific go to 55% last year. Now we’re slowing down a bit, especially the last couple of months. But, especially for this reason, China to Europe flows are booming.” 

He noted that in 2022, ecommerce into Berlin was some 20% of overall volume, versus up to 40% now, “and increasing”. 

But Mr Bloemen warned that “shifts create imbalances”.  

He explained: “In 2023, there was 1.2 times more weight flying from Asia to Europe than on the way back. From China, the yield was roughly 1.6 times as much. Fast-forward to 2025, the weight discrepancy has increased, but the yield discrepancy became super. So, we’re now at roughly 2.6 times more you have to pay from Asia to Europe than on the way back. Transpacific is a similar story.

“So, we basically see these trade imbalances causing yield imbalances, and therefore causing a lot of programme charter work. The money is made one way.” 

And Alain Guerin, chief commercial officer at CMA CGM Air Cargo, noted that for airlines, these shifts brought challenges as well as opportunities.  

“The growth of ecommerce volume has led to a redistribution of the capacity, especially ex-China, and we have to constantly adjust to it. We have to review our route planning, our operation; and that process can actually introduce inefficiencies and create costs,” he said.  

“It’s quite important to us to talk about ecommerce, which is really about to redefine what air cargo is going to be,” Mr Guerin concluded.