Shippers welcome new ocean capacity, but it won't stop price increases
In the absence of carrier-led price hikes, container spot rates largely flattened on the transpacific ...
ID 105211355 © Chuyu | Dreamstime.com
By Alison Koo
Mainline operators are withdrawing rate hikes on Asia-North Europe and transpacific routes, following China’s decision to remove value-added tax rebates for several key export products, including solar panels, from 1 April.
On Friday, the Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) showed a 0.6% dip in Asia-North Europe rates, to $2,864 per 40ft, bringing an end to the spot rate rally seen at the end of 2025.
Linerlytica’s report today suggests shipping lines may have been spooked by the recent sharp corrections in freight rates for Asia to South America, tempering hopes of a pre-Chinese New Year rally in freight rates.
Asia-South America rates now average $1,391 per 40ft, down from $1,602 a month ago.
Linerlytica also notes that Asia-North Europe rates for the second half of January are settling in the $2,500-$2,800 per 40ft range, marginally lower than the previous SCFI assessment of $2,864.
Meanwhile, on 31 December, MSC notified customers of a new FAK (freight all kinds) base rate of $4,000 per 40ft container for Far East-North Europe shipments from 15 January.
However, Linerlytica notes that container futures trades indicate a likelihood that Asia-North Europe rates could recover before China’s export tax rebate is scrapped in April.
The consultancy said: “The removal of the solar panel export refunds from April will negatively impact volumes, but is expected to provide a short-term front-loading boost.”
China exported 12.4m tonnes of solar photovoltaic products in the first 11 months of last year, up 6% year on year, with growth accelerating sharply from August as Chinese manufacturers appeared to anticipate the tax rebate cut.
Shipments to Northern Europe, however, fell 12% year on year, to 2.7m tonnes, equivalent to about 135,000 40ft boxes, accounting for around 2% of the total shipments on the Far East–North Europe trade.
While the SCFI showed a slight uptick in transpacific rates, the market reality is different, particularly on the Asia-USWC route, where carriers are quoting rates of $1,900-$2,100 per 40ft, compared with the SCFI assessment of $2,218.
Linerlytica said: “Carriers are still pushing for a mid-January rate hike, but the momentum has weakened, with capacity utilisation still not picking up sufficiently.”
Comment on this article